Expires:No;;131594
FXAK67 PAJK 040038
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SHORT TERM...
Rain continues across most of the panhandle with the exception of
the northern panhandle where a mix of precipitation is still 
being reported. Snow continues to fall in Skagway while the Haines
airport has finally switched to rain. Freezing is still possible 
though up the Haines Highway with temperatures below freezing 
being reported along the highway. For the rest of the panhandle, 
rain will continue through this evening before starting to 
diminish behind the front. Another wave of moisture is expected to
move into Wednesday as we continue the active weather for the 
panhandle. Temperatures were left as is in this forecast package 
as no models continue to handle the temperature effectively for 
the short term.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...Active weather pattern 
for SE AK continues through the long range with a mid level low to
the west and ridge over the panhandle keeping a series of lows 
flowing towards the AK Gulf. While expecting gale force winds 
around the lows and moderate rainfall these systems will be less 
impactful than those earlier in the week. Additional there is 
uncertainty on the exact track of these systems. Ensembles fairly 
consistent is having this persistent pattern. SE flow keeps the 
warm air in place, so no relief from rainfall for winter activity 
enthusiasts. Heaviest precip amounts diminish early Thursday with 
another band late Thursday into Friday with the NE Gulf Coast 
under higher probability for this rainfall. Moving into the 
weekend seeing more model alignment with that low tracking further
south resulting in offshore flow and diminished chances for 
precip over the central and northern regions with a break on 
Sunday before next system. This pattern may drop some cooler air 
in, but wouldn't go so far as to say cold. And as we progress into
next week, looks like back to a SE flow pattern with warm air and
another round of weather fronts. Precip annual return intervals 
after the Wednesday system drop then pick back up indicating more 
moderate rain for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Predominate MVFR to IFR flight conditions expected through 
tonight as frontal system continues to push through the SEAK 
panhandle. Anticipate ceilings AoB 4000ft through Wednesday 
morning with visibilities dropping down to 2 to 4SM in the 
heaviest showers. Sustained winds should remain around 15kts or 
less, outside PAGY which will see winds up to 25kts, with an 
isolated gust up to 20 to 20kts. Winds LLWS concerns and 
conditions improve as widespread heavy precipitation will come to 
an end by Wednesday morning as on- shore flow takes over for a 
brief precip reprieve.


&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue this evening as the front moves across the 
panhandle. Seas will continue to remain elevated, especially 
through the Gulf waters where swell will continue from the south 
and southwest. Winds and waves will decrease as we are in between 
fronts but will increase as the next front approaches Thursday 
into Friday. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the area through 
Tuesday evening as excessive runoff runoff from rainfall and 
elevated snow levels has kept rivers and streams remain near 
bankful with isolated rivers reaching minor flood stage this 
afternoon. One to two inches of additional rainfall is expected 
for the area with a downward trend in precipitation intensity and 
coverage anticipated through Tuesday night as front pushes out of 
the area, however, on-shore flow will produce continual isolated 
to scattered showers across the area through the week. Another 
system expected to bring additional rainfall by Thursday, however 
not anticipating as heavy nor as long duration as in previous 
days.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Ice Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ320-325>332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-643-644-651-652-664-671-672. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-033-036-053-641-642-661>663. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
HYDROLOGY...NM

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