Expires:No;;136462 FXUS65 KBYZ 040306 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 806 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday. - Turning unsettled and cooler Sunday into early next week. - Periods of gusty/strong winds along the western foothills through the week. Winds look to be strongest Friday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... A clipper system dropping into North Dakota will push an associated backdoor cold front through the area tonight bringing an increase in moisture and cooler conditions. Winds will remain breezy at times over the western foothills overnight, with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible. A few light snow showers or flurries are possible over the far east late tonight/tomorrow morning. Have updated wind and PoPs to latest trends through tomorrow morning. The previous forecast discussion is below. STP && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday Night... Currently, with ridging over the west coast, warm and dry air is in place over our region. Some weak energy riding the lee side of the ridge is bringing some cool and moist air from the north. Any kind of precipitation from this is unlikely. In the Big Timber and Livingston areas, wind gusts have remained in the 30-40 mph range with winds expected to decrease into the evening. A low moving from Canada into Minnesota will bring a backdoor front through the region Wednesday morning. This will bring a small increased chance of precipitation for east-central MT (10-15%). Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs forecasted to be in the 20s east to low 50s along the western foothills. Wednesday night, a pressure gradient will set up to allow for gap winds in the Livingston, Nye and Big Timber areas. The chance for gusts 50 mph or more is around 25%. NW flow and dry conditions will be in place Thursday with high temperatures in the 30s east to 50s west. TS Friday through Tuesday... Friday and Saturday are forecast to be dry ahead of the late weekend weather system. During those days, temperatures are forecast to be above normal with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Saturday looks to be the warmest day with temperatures approaching 60 degrees, especially in Sheridan County, Wyoming (30-60 percent chance of seeing 60 degf). With the warm temperatures, windy conditions are expected to develop over the western foothills as a favorable pressure gradient sets up Friday night into Sunday morning. At this time, local guidance continues to show a 75 percent chance at Livingston and a 55 percent chance at Big Timber and Harlowton to see wind gusts of 50 mph or greater during that time. These strong winds look to come to an end Sunday as a cold front passage disrupts the favorable pressure gradient. With the cold front and associated upper-level trough, the chance of precipitation increases across the region Sunday through Monday (30-70 percent chance, highest over the mountains and foothills and lowest over the plains of southeastern Montana). With this system, the precipitation signal remains lower in both the GFS and EC ensembles. At this time, the NBM only gives a low to moderate chance of seeing 0.10 or more inches of liquid precipitation over the lower elevations. As for precipitation type, rain is expected to transition over to snow Sunday night over the lower elevations. In the mountains, where all snow is expected, there is a moderate chance of seeing 3 or more inches of snow at this time. Along with the precipitation, breezy winds behind the cold front will exist Sunday into Monday over the plains. By Tuesday, only a low chance of precipitation remains over the region as ensembles suggest unstable northwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look to be cooler as well with temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. Arends && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail into tonight across the region. Wednesday morning into the afternoon, a backdoor cold front will turn winds out of the north and east around and east of KBIL to KSHR. With this, a MVFR to IFR stratus deck is forecast to drop into eastern Montana around KMLS and KBHK. Outside of this, the breezy west to southwesterly winds around KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT look to decrease a bit this evening and night before coming to an end Wednesday. From K6S0 to K3HT, winds may temporarily increase early Wednesday morning (gusts around 30 kts) before decreasing. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/042 023/050 032/052 036/055 037/046 027/035 020/037 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/O 43/S 11/B LVM 032/052 030/053 030/052 035/054 033/041 023/035 017/036 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 34/O 42/S 11/B HDN 020/041 019/048 025/052 029/056 034/046 024/035 018/037 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 24/R 54/S 22/S MLS 023/032 016/037 021/048 030/054 035/045 022/032 016/034 02/S 00/U 00/U 00/B 12/R 33/S 11/B 4BQ 024/037 021/046 025/052 031/058 034/046 023/033 018/034 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/R 43/S 11/B BHK 021/030 007/035 017/046 026/053 030/044 017/028 010/030 12/S 10/B 00/U 00/B 12/R 32/S 10/B SHR 025/046 021/051 025/054 028/060 030/045 020/033 014/036 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 24/O 54/S 22/S && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings