Expires:No;;145527 FXUS64 KBMX 040800 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 200 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM CST WED DEC 4 2024 The high pressure system currently centered just to our east will slide away from the area through the afternoon and becomes centered off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure will swing through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front to the ArkLaTex area by the afternoon. We should see clouds begin to build in the west, although the rain should remain to our west through the daytime hours. Tonight we will see the front enter the northeast after Midnight and then quickly sweep through the area overnight and into Thursday morning. This will be a fairly widespread light rain event with minor accumulations. Most of the rain will be in the north by sunrise and then out of the south by midday. Drier air returns by the afternoon on Thursday. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CST WED DEC 4 2024 Key Message: - Medium to high (50-70%) chances of wind chills dropping into the 10 to 15 degree range across the northern half of Central Alabama late Thursday night into Friday morning. Strong cold air advection will be in place Thursday night as a 1035mb high sinks southeastward, centered over the Ozarks. Winds will stay up overnight but will begin to drop off around sunrise in sheltered locations. Low temperatures will drop well into the 20s with some upper teens in some of the far northern counties. Wind chills drop near or below 15 degrees across the northern half of the area, with some values at or below 10 degrees in some of the northern counties with the cooler advisory criteria. Therefore there are at least medium if not high chances of needing to issue a Cold Weather Advisory. Note that hard freeze warnings are no longer issued, but some far northern counties will reach the old hard freeze criteria of 20 degrees or colder. A chilly day is expected Friday with continued northerly winds. Calm winds and very low dew points will result in favorable radiational cooling conditions Friday night though some high clouds move in late. Lows will drop well into the 20s once again. Ensemble clusters of solutions are coming into much better agreement with the forecast for this weekend and early next week. Saturday and Saturday night now look dry with moderating temperatures and winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly. A kicker trough over the northeast Pacific will break down the rex block over the western CONUS. The southwest US cutoff low will eject northeastward across the Mid-South Sunday night and Monday morning. Moisture transport from a 45kt LLJ results in high (70-90%) rain chances across the northwest half of the area by Monday morning. The shortwave will be outrunning the northeastward progression of the warm sector at the surface with negligible instability with this lead shortwave. The cold front will remain off to our west until Tuesday as the upstream shortwave amplifies into a longwave trough across the central CONUS. This will result in continued rain chances and mild temperatures, though moisture appears limited with the frontal passage itself on Tuesday. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period. Calm winds as of 05z will increase to between 5-10 knots from a southwesterly heading starting ~15z today. A weather system will bring some light rain showers late in the TAF period, arriving and moving west-to-east from 00z Thursday. This system may involve reduced ceilings and visibility overnight Thursday for a few terminals; more on that in the next TAF cycle. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure remains in control over the region today and then rain moves in tonight through Thursday morning. Accumulations will be light but we should see a fairly widespread rain. Min RH levels this afternoon before the clouds and rain will be in the mid to upper 20s in the southeast to low to mid 30s across the rest of the area. Behind the front on Thursday afternoon the north will drop in the 30s for Min RH levels while the south will remain in the 40s and 50s. 20ft winds will be southwesterly around 5 to 8 mph this afternoon and northerly on Thursday around 7 to 11 mph. Next chance of wetting rains will be Sunday night into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 42 47 19 / 0 60 0 0 Anniston 56 44 49 21 / 0 70 0 0 Birmingham 55 44 48 21 / 0 80 0 0 Tuscaloosa 56 44 50 23 / 10 90 10 0 Calera 56 47 50 22 / 0 90 10 0 Auburn 55 45 54 25 / 0 80 20 0 Montgomery 58 46 56 27 / 0 90 30 0 Troy 58 45 57 28 / 0 80 40 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32/JDavis AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite