Expires:No;;148346 FXUS61 KBTV 040845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread snow will move into the region this afternoon into this evening. The snow will persist through early Friday, with a few to several inches of snow accumulation expected. Winds will become gusty as well, likely producing areas of blowing and drifting snow. Unseasonably cold weather will follow for the first half of the weekend before moderating early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast for widespread snow from an incoming clipper system remains on track this morning, and no significant changes have been made with this forecast package. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches in the wider valleys and 3 to 8+ inches in the higher terrain will result in hazardous travel through the near term period. Gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow through the entire event, as well, only adding to the travel woes. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for entire area except the Champlain Valley and the northern St Lawrence Valley, starting this afternoon and running through Thursday evening. Low pressure currently centered north of Lake Superior will slowly push east-southeastward today and tonight, eventually moving by to our north on Thursday. Winds are already starting to shift to the south this morning, and a bit of lake effect will likely shift across southern St Lawrence County early this morning. However, the bulk of the snow from the clipper system will not make its appearance in our area until mid/late afternoon, first moving into the St Lawrence Valley. The snow spreads eastward overnight, though becoming a bit more spotty on the northern side of the Adirondacks and into the Champlain Valley due to strong south/southwest winds and shadowing off the higher terrain. After highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s today, temperatures will remain fairly steady overnight, hovering in the mid 20s to around 30F. The clipper moves to our east Thursday afternoon/evening, shifting winds to the west/northwest. Snow will become more focused in the favored upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and Green Mountains, while trending more showery in the wider valleys due to downsloping off the higher terrain. Lapse rates will steepen as cold air moves in behind the departing clipper, leading to some instability during the afternoon. Hence still anticipate the possibility of some convective showers during the afternoon, with moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow at times. Snow will linger through Thursday evening. As mentioned above, snow totals in the wider valleys will average 1 to 4 inches, with 3 to 8+ inches elsewhere. Elevations above 2000 ft will likely see 8-10 inches, with some spots exceeding a foot. Highs on Thursday will range from 30F to 35F. The other concern will be gusty winds, both ahead of the clipper and after it departs. South winds will increase through the day tonight and continue tonight, with some lessening early Thursday as the low traverses along the international border. These winds will turn to the west/northwest by Thursday afternoon once the low moves to our east, but either way, expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph, with localized gusts up to 40 mph. SLRs will remain around 13-17:1 through much of the event, so the snow will be somewhat light in nature. Even fairly minimal snow accumulations combined with the gusty winds will likely result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, heightening the potential for hazardous travel, especially this evening's commute as well as both the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. If you're going to be traveling, please plan ahead and leave yourself plenty of time to arrive safely at your destination. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Vertically stacked low pressure will be swirling into Atlantic Canada by Thursday night, leaving behind fairly strong west to northwesterly unblocked surface flow and heavy upslope snow showers, particularly for western and northern slopes. Additional snow accumulations up to 3-5 inches in the mountains with at least another good dusting to an inch in valleys are expected. Strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the mid teens to mid 20s overnight as wind gusts 20-40 knots will make conditions feel quite a bit colder. Some mountaintops could even see wind gusts up to 50 knots. Apparent temperatures are anticipated to fall as low as 0-10 degrees F during the coldest part of the night, potentially as low as -15 to -20 degrees on summits. Upslope snow showers will finally taper off on Friday morning as gradient winds let up and the low pressure pulls farther away. However, conditions will still be cold and blustery on Friday with west/northwesterly wind gusts 15-30 knots and high temperatures struggling to hit the upper teens to mid 20s. At their warmest, apparent temperatures will be in the single digits to mid teens Fahrenheit, and clouds will be on a slow clearing trend throughout the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Friday night will likely be the coldest of the week with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Blustery overnight westerly winds will plummet wind chills into the single digits for most, below zero at higher elevations. A crossing shortwave will bring returned chances of precipitation Friday night into Sunday, with highest chances in northern New York. Continued cold conditions Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens to lower 20s will result in primarily snow to start before the region begins to warm next week. Temperatures Sunday will creep into the mid to upper 30s, allowing for some rain to potentially mix into the wider valleys in the afternoon. Temperatures continue to trend milder into the work week with highs in the upper 30s to 40s for most and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A frontal system is anticipated to slide through the forecast area for the first half of the work week bringing widespread precipitation. With such mild temperatures, we'll likely see rain in the broad valleys and snow or rain/snow in higher terrain. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals at this hour, with the exception of localized IFR at KRUT/KSLK due to low clouds and lingering snow showers. These showers will die down in the next couple hours, and expect these two terminals to return to VFR by 10z. VFR will continue until early afternoon, then conditions will worsen as snow spreads from west to east, generally from 18z onward. Ceilings will gradually lower to 2500 ft, and visibilities 2-3sm in steady snow. All terminals affected by 02z Thu. Light winds will trend toward S/SW by 12z Wed, then becoming increasingly breezy through the day, with gusts of 20-30 kt at most terminals. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF period, along with LLWS. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Areas BS. Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today, and will likely remain so through at least Thursday night. South winds will increase through the daylight hours today, becoming sustained at 15 to 25 kt with gusts of 30 to 40kt by this evening. These south winds will continue overnight tonight, with a bit of a lull possible early Thursday morning. Winds will then switch to the west/northwest, but remain gusty to around 30 kt thereafter. Waves of 3 to 6 ft are expected during the periods of strongest winds. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...WFO BTV