Expires:No;;147869 FXUS63 KDDC 040839 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 239 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low probability (around 20%) of some low clouds and visibility drops to 1/2 mile in patchy fog south of highway 400 early this morning. - Dry weather through at least next weekend. - Colder air expected next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 A little cooler conditions are expected this afternoon as weak cold front is sliding south this morning. A cold front was positioned near Goodland while a pre-frontal trough extended from near Russell to Elkhart. A subtle signal of 850 mb moisture transport extended just ahead of this trough, reflected in slightly higher surface dew points in the mid 40s over the northeast TX panhandles with vectors into the Red Hills region of Kansas. This area might be a fair opportunity for stratus or fog development for a short period before the cold front pushes will into OK Today. HREF Probabilities for low clouds and fog with visibility below a ½ mile area around 20% from Meade to Minneola, Clark Lake, Ashland and Coldwater and Medicine Lodge this morning between about 3 and 8am. The aforementioned cooler afternoon should pan out in the upper 50s most areas. A split flow upper pattern continues across North America, leaving westerly Kansas under weak northwest confluent upper level flow Thursday into Saturday. Coupled with the large anticyclone shift into the southeast U.S., a weak westerly surface downslope pattern will dominate this medium term period. The global spectral model deterministic mass fields are very close through the upcoming weekend, depicting a 500 mb low/positively tilted trough developing over the extreme desert southwest and northern Mexico - lifting across the central and southern Plains through the weekend. Moisture looks to be relegated to the moist/warm conveyor belt over Texas and maybe as far north as Oklahoma as western Kansas remains in the dry southwest adiabatically warmed air. NBM model inputs suggest a reasonable range of outcomes for highs between 60 and 65 degrees at Liberal and about 57 to 61 degrees at Hays for each of the weekend days. By the end of the weekend, both to the upper jets buckle with a large pool of cold coming across the western U.S. and driving a frontal boundary in to Kansas Sunday Night, setting up successively colder days Monday and into Tuesday afternoon where NBM mean highs average from mid 40s near Medicine Lodge, to the upper 30s across the smoky hill valley and Colorado line. Very low chances for precipitation ( 20% or less) are also found across the westernmost counties in this Sunday night into Monday period associated with easterly upslope into a frontogenesis aloft/large scale light associated with the digging low off to the south. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1114 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A surface trough extended from south central Nebraska to just west of Garden City. Surface analysis also shows a weak cold front over Nebraska, and with southward advancement and overnight cooling ahead of it, the cold front should overtake the trough by 12z. Some sub 1000ft ceilings may form (10-20% chance) along this area of moisture convergence, near and south of KDDC , between about 8 and 13z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell