Expires:No;;147316
FXUS65 KFGZ 040830
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
130 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry weather with light winds 
continues through the rest of the week. A weak upper low will bring 
slight chances for rain and snow showers to the eastern Mogollon Rim 
and White Mountains through Friday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong blocking pattern with a ridge of high 
pressure across much of the western states remains in place through 
the rest of this week, which will result in mild temperatures and 
mainly dry conditions. A weak low developing under the ridge will 
move slowing into Arizona today before gradually starting to slide 
southward through the end of the week. The end result of this low 
will be a slight increase in moisture across the region which should 
allow for some light showers to develop during the afternoon hours 
(today through Friday). Best chances for any precipitation will be 
across the White Mountains and into the eastern Mogollon Rim. With 
very dry low levels though it will be tough to get much down to the 
surface so not really expecting much more than a couple hundredths 
of an inch. Areas above ~8500 ft may see some snow showers but not 
expecting much, if any, accumulations. 

As the low dives to the south through the rest of the weekend, we see 
the ridge of high pressure start to break down. As this happens, a 
trough will start to dig southward from the Pacific Northwest. At 
this time, this feature looks moisture starved so precipitation 
chances remain low at this time. However, the trough deepens as it 
approaches the area and this will have the potential to bring in 
some pretty cold air and some gusty winds, mainly around Monday and 
Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days to see if we 
can break out of this prolonged warm pattern of late.   

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 04/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z...VFR
conditions with variable and light winds (generally 10 kts or
less) expected through the TAF period. Localized NE gusts possible
near/at KSEZ between 06Z-12Z. 

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/06Z through Saturday 07/06Z...VFR conditions
expected to prevail. Look for isolated -SHRA/-SHSN along and south
of a KPAN-KSJN line between 12Z Thursday and 06Z Friday. Gusty
winds possible near showers. Otherwise, light and variable winds
are expected with breezy overnight NE winds across Yavapai 
County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mostly dry conditions are 
expected, with only a slight chance for showers near the White 
Mountain and eastern Mogollon Rim each afternoon. Winds light and 
variable around 10 mph or less.

Friday through Sunday...Mostly dry conditions, with only a slight 
chance for showers near the White Mountains. Light winds from the 
north/northeast around 10 mph or less, becoming west/southwest 5 to 
15 mph on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff