Expires:No;;142817 FXUS64 KFWD 040605 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1205 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return to the region Wednesday with the best chances generally along and to the east of I-35. A few storms are possible, but severe weather is not expected. - Another system will arrive late in the week with at least low rain chances into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ An upper low can be seen on satellite imagery circulating over the Desert Southwest with a shortwave disturbance rounding its base over northern Mexico. Meanwhile, a coastal front remains positioned to our south, which will keep North and Central Texas in the cool sector as the shortwave races east across Mexico overnight and Texas on Wednesday. Isentropic lift will intensify as the shortwave draws near, generating an uptick in rain showers by daybreak. Activity may originate over the Hill Country, but will move quickly northeast across the region during the day. Model soundings advertise around 500 j/kg of elevated CAPE, which should support isolated embedded thunderstorms within a broad swath of light to moderate rain. Precipitation will end from west to east mid to late afternoon, eventually exiting our eastern-most counties Wednesday evening. The highest rainfall totals will likely occur over eastern portions of Central Texas, where an inch or so of rain may fall by the time it comes to an end. Another cold front will push through in the wake of the departing disturbance, immersing North and Central Texas in a cool, dry continental airmass. Clouds will erode from north to south of Thursday, but cool air advection should offset the sun, keeping Thursday highs mainly in the 50s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 144 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024/ Update: No significant changes were made to the long-term forecast as the main highlight continues to be the Friday into the weekend system. Not only will it bring the potential for rain, but also is expected to keep us in the cooler weather through Sunday. Unfortunately, the latest suite of guidance still shows a good amount of uncertainty with the location of the Thursday night's front and eventually the progression of the upper level low. Cluster analysis are still fairly evenly split as mentioned in the previous discussion. See below for more details. Trends will continue to be monitored and for those with outdoor activities and/or holiday events Friday and Saturday...continue to monitor the updates as changes to the official forecast will likely occur over the next few days! Sanchez Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Night through Monday/ Lingering showers may continue into Wednesday night mainly across our eastern counties, but a cold front will spill southward into the region during the late overnight hours. There is still some model uncertainty with respect to the surface features during this time, and this will impact the potential forecast Thursday through Saturday. The ECMWF is more aggressive with cooler and drier air spilling south through the Plains which effectively shunts the deeper moisture well to our south by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS hangs the front up across Central TX during this time and keeps a reservoir of moisture in much closer proximity to North Texas. Given that an upper low will be positioned across the Desert Southwest at this time, return flow would quickly pull moisture northward into the region as suggested by the GFS solution. Cluster analysis of all the available ensemble guidance doesn't offer much help as it is about as evenly split (41% favoring a drier solution -- ECWMF vs. 46% favoring a wet solution -- GFS/Canadian) as can be. This suggests that the position of the Thursday cold front late in the day will have a big impact on additional rainfall potential into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. This location uncertainty is common during the winter months and we'll likely have to get a little closer to the event to lock in on a particular solution. For now, we'll continue to advertise increasing rain chances late Friday through Saturday, but won't go as wet as the last few runs of the GFS. While significant weather is not expected with this event, some modest rainfall totals could occur should the wetter solution pan out. Either way, increasing cloud cover is expected into the weekend along with cool temperatures. A freeze is expected overnight Thursday night north of I-20, while highs may struggle to get out of the 40s in some locations on Friday. This system should move east of the area by Sunday with rain chances diminishing and temperatures climbing back into the mid 60s early next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Deteriorating flight conditions should begin Wednesday morning as an overrunning pattern associated with an approaching upper level disturbance strengthens. MVFR ceilings have recently developed over the TX Hill Country and will spread northeast overnight. MVFR should reach KACT 08-10Z and the DFW Metroplex 11-13Z. Lowering cigs will be accompanied by rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. The lowest conditions will actually occur Wednesday afternoon when isentropic lift is strongest, with IFR a good bet for at least a few hours. Conditions will gradually improve late afternoon and Wednesday evening as the disturbance and associated precipitation moves off to the east. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 56 41 56 35 / 30 60 5 0 10 Waco 51 57 47 60 38 / 40 80 5 0 20 Paris 35 54 38 53 30 / 10 60 5 0 0 Denton 44 58 40 55 30 / 20 40 0 0 5 McKinney 43 56 40 54 30 / 20 60 5 0 5 Dallas 46 57 42 57 36 / 30 70 5 0 10 Terrell 43 56 43 56 32 / 30 80 5 0 5 Corsicana 48 57 46 59 36 / 40 90 10 0 10 Temple 51 60 48 61 38 / 30 70 5 0 20 Mineral Wells 45 62 41 57 33 / 30 40 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$