Expires:No;;141717 FXUS64 KHGX 040520 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The forecast for SE TX will continue to feature changes with over- all pattern as rain returns to the forecast. Surface high pressure continuing to move east across the SE CONUS will allow for veering winds from the E to SE tonight. Aloft, an increasingly SW flow has helped to draw moisture/clouds into the area from the W/SW. All of this will be setting the stage for widespread scattered POPs head- ing into tomorrow with the development and track of a surface low/ its associated warm front from the Gulf waters. PWs are progged to surge into the 1.6-1.8" range through tomorrow but instability may be limited as clouds linger. This should result in mostly scatter- ed showers and isolated thunderstorms. In the meantime, look for increasing clouds and isolated to widely scattered rain to move in from the W/SW through tonight. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer...with temperatures ranging from the mid and upper 40s across the Piney Woods to the mid and upper 50s over the rest of the CWA. Warmer more humid conditions are expected to- morrow with the warm front; with highs from the lower 60s over the far N/NE counties to the lower and mid 70s elsewhere. Rain chances should be decreasing by tomorrow night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The cold front will be off the coast Thursday morning, but lingering moisture is expected to persist. Will continue to indicate lowering rain chances from north to south as the day progresses, with rain/showers generally inland and rain/showers and isolated thunderstorms near and off the coast. This general pattern will continue heading on into the Thursday night through Friday time period with surface high pressure centered off to our north helping to keep the area on the cool side (little to no rain chances in/around our far eastern counties and better and gradually increasing rain chances the closer you get to our western counties and especially in/around the Matagorda Bay area. Beginning Friday night and especially over the weekend, the southwest flow aloft increases/deepens as a mid/upper level low to our west lifts out. This flow in combination with the old cold front working its way back to the north, another coastal low/trough and precipitable water values surging back >1.50 inches will bring increasing rain coverage to the area. All of southeast Texas looks to get wet with this storm system with general amounts (Friday night thru Sunday night) ranging from 1 to 2 inches west to 2 to 4 inches central and east, with the higher amounts near the coast, in/around the Galveston Bay area and offshore. Look for adjustments to these numbers as the rest of the week progresses. Lowering rain chances can be expected on Monday. Temperatures will be up and down through this period. The cold front of the coast Thursday morning means Thursday's highs will be mainly in the 60s. The coolest night follows with Friday morning's lows ranging from the low to mid 30s way up north (in/around the Houston County and Crockett area) to the low to mid 40s inland to close to 50 at the coast. Look for Friday to not warm up a whole lot with highs ranging from the upper 40s to around 50 in that way up north area to right around 60 at the coast. After another cool night on Friday night (mainly 40s), the weekend will have a warming trend with highs by Sunday back up into the 60s and 70s. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1117 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A steady downward trend in ceilings is expected overnight as low level moisture increases across the area. VFR ceilings closer to MVFR after 9z then possibly into IFR territory not long after sunrise. This will be in advance of a warm front that'll be moving inland across the are Wednesday. Though some isolated showers will be possible overnight, chances ramp up Wed morning as this boundary pushes in. There's not a lot of instability to work with, but could be just enough to see a few embedded thunderstorms in there too. Cannot completely rule out a strong cell or two. Winds will veer from the ene to the sse as the warm front passes during the day...then shift back to the north Wednesday night as another weak cold front sags into the region. Areas of fog will likely develop ahead of this boundary in the evening and late night hours Wednesday. A complex (messy) 24+ hours on tap. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Elevated east winds this evening will become southeast to south tonight and Wednesday. Caution flags in the bays and advisories off the coast may need to be extended into the day on Wednesday, especially off the coast due to elevated seas. Still expecting increasing rain chances tonight and Wednesday as a coastal trough and warm front move across the area. Patchy sea fog could develop on Wednesday, but strong winds from a less favorable fetch decrease confidence in fog potential. Should any fog develop, it is not likely to be dense. A cold front moves off the coast and through the area Thursday morning. North to northeast winds behind this front will shift on back to the east and south over the weekend ahead of the next storm system. This system will bring another round of showers and possible thunderstorms to the area over the weekend. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 68 54 62 / 30 70 20 10 Houston (IAH) 55 70 58 64 / 30 70 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 62 68 / 30 70 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Adams