Expires:No;;141900 FXUS64 KHUN 040531 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1131 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 854 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 High pressure at the surface promoting clear and calm conditions tonight across the Tennessee Valley. A good night for radiational cooling in this cold/dry air mass will drop temperatures into the lower 20s in most locations by early Wednesday morning -- with a few locations dropping into the upper Teens in a few sheltered valley locations. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast as everything appears on track. Make sure to bundle up as you head out the door Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1218 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The models still indicate a powerful upper trough digging through the lower Great Lakes driving another Arctic front southeast into the region Wednesday night. Preceding the frontal arrival, west- southwest flow and weakening upper disturbances traveling east through the south TX into the Gulf South will result in considerable lift, and moisture transport and rainfall across the deep South Wednesday into Wednesday night. The rainfall may spread as far northeast as the TN valley Wednesday night, but considering the dry low levels, there remains some uncertainty on this. The greatest HREF probability of widespread measurable rainfall will be southwest of a Muscle Shoals-Cullman line. However, we will continue to carry low chances further northeast as well. When the Arctic front arrives, a few flurries could mix in atop the Cumberland Plateau in Franklin County TN as well. Another blustery day is expected Thursday behind the front, but at least it will be sunny. However, temperatures will struggle to peak in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows by Friday morning will only be in the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind chills will dip to the 5-15 above range as well with winds of 5-10 mph persisting in a few spots. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Global models generally suggest that a cold core upper vortex will travel cyclonically through the Great Lakes region/New England and into the Canadian maritime provinces early in the extended period, with southwesterly flow aloft expected to strengthen across much of the southern CONUS in the wake of a trailing mid-level ridge. However, there are subtle differences in the rate at which these processes will occur, which will ultimately have an impact on when our region can expect to see a warming trend and increasing chances for rainfall. Present indications are that we will remain under the influence of a modifying arctic airmass and dry through at least Friday night, which has led to removal of light freezing rain across northwest AL early Saturday morning. Light rain may indeed impact primarily the southwestern portions of the forecast area at times on Saturday and Saturday night, but at this point chances for rain and perhaps a couple of embedded thunderstorms do not appear to increase considerably until Sunday afternoon, at which time deep- layer SW flow will strengthen ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough (the remnants of a slow-moving cutoff low initially over the southwestern CONUS). Highs will progressively warm from the u30s-l40s Friday into the l-m 60s Monday, with lows rising into the m-u 40s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Mostly clear conditions will continue through the afternoon hours, with SW winds between 5-10 MPH. Clouds will begin to filter into the region after 00z late in the period, but ceilings should remain around low-end VFR levels. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24