Expires:No;;148972
FXUS64 KLUB 040855
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
255 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warmer temperatures Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

 - Cooler weather returns Thursday behind the front and then
   lingering into Friday when some light rain showers will be
   possible across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Split flow over the eastern Pacific will keep a Rex Block in place 
over the western CONUS for the time being. A series of short wave 
troughs moving over top the ridge will continue to affect the Great 
Lakes area. One of these short waves will send a cold front to the 
area this afternoon. Temperatures several degrees warmer than 
yesterday will be realized today ahead of the front under 
downsloping westerly flow. Even behind the front, the airmass is not 
significantly cooler initially with the strong surface ridging 
hanging out more in the northern Plains tonight. Pressure rises 
behind the front will not be incredibly strong keeping surface winds 
relatively low for a cool season cold front. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Upper level troughing will continue to translate from the Great 
Lakes region through the northeastern CONUS through the weekend. 
Meanwhile off to the west, a Rex Block pattern will finally begin to 
breakdown Thursday as a cutoff low sets up across southern AZ and 
NM, shifting the upper level ridge over the FA slightly eastward. 
Model guidance has become more in tune with the evolution of this 
system over the last 24 hours, keeping the low near stationary 
through Saturday before ejecting northeastward through the Texas 
Panhandle and into the Southern Plains by early next week. 
Relatively quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday, other 
than cooler temperatures in the 50s thanks to the post frontal 
airmass locked in place from overnight FROPA. Moist return flow is 
expected to develop as early as Thursday afternoon across the FA, 
increasing low-level moisture into the region from the Gulf. 
Meanwhile, mid to upper level moisture will also be on the rise out 
ahead of the upper level system as southwest flow aloft ushers in 
moisture from the H2 jet. With decent lift provided by the 250 mb 
jet and isentropic ascent across the FA, areas along and south of 
US82/TX114 corridor where the best moisture and lift are present. 
The upper level system will exit to the northeast Saturday evening, 
which will lead to rainfall chances ending from west to east. 
Increased cloud cover across the region and precipitation will keep 
daytime highs cooler Friday and Saturday in the 50s, before warming 
back into the 60s on Sunday as skies clear and southwest winds 
return and increase around 15 to 20 mph as surface pressure gradient 
begins to tighten.
Beginning early next week our eyes turn to the next upper level 
system approaching the region from the PacNW. As this trough 
approaches, it will swing a Canadian front through the area early 
next week. Models diverge on the timing of the front at this time, 
which will play a factor in high temperatures on Monday. Depending 
on how much moisture recovery we see out ahead of the system and 
placement of the trough, we may even see a quick window of 
opportunity for precipitation. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Lower VFR CIGs will continue through this evening before lifting
into Wednesday. Light southerly winds will switch to northerly by
Wednesday afternoon. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19