Expires:No;;140987
FXUS64 KOUN 040508
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

- Seasonable temperatures through the week with modest day to day 
  variations.

- Warming trend this weekend.

- Medium rain chances across the southeast on Wednesday; low rain
  chances across the south on Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Winds have returned to southerly early this afternoon as surface 
high pressure settles to our east and slowly weakens. Southerly 
flow and increasing moisture will help keep temperatures warmer 
tonight than the past several nights, with lows in the upper 30s 
to low 40s for most of the area. A surface trough will move into 
the area tomorrow, veering our flow to a more downsloped 
southwesterly direction and allowing high temperatures to reach 
the low to mid 60s within the trough axis from western north Texas
into central Oklahoma. To the south of this axis, expect 
increased cloud cover and a chance for showers as a weak wave 
tracks across Texas, keeping temperatures a bit cooler across
southern/southeast Oklahoma. Slightly cooler temperatures are 
also expected across northern Oklahoma where winds will turn more 
northerly behind the surface trough. 

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Surface ridging will build southward on Thursday ahead of high 
pressure centered across the northern plains. This will bring a 
reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region, with highs dropping 
back into the 40s Thursday for much of central and northern 
Oklahoma, with low to mid 50s further south. Another widespread 
freeze is then anticipated for Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Ware 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Synoptic uncertainty increases Friday into the weekend as models 
struggle to handle the ejection of a cutoff low spinning over the 
southwest U.S., though nearly all ensemble solutions suggest a 
warming trend. Low rain chances (20-30%) will also return to 
southern parts of the forecast area over the weekend (centered 
mainly on Friday night).

Another cool down is then forecast with our next front sometime 
early next week, though models are exhibiting typical levels of 
disagreement from this range regarding the timing and amplitude of 
this next trough. 

Day/Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

There are still three primary issues for the aviation forecast 
this evening: 1) Low-level non-convective wind shear in north 
central Oklahoma overnight, 2) A cold front moving through the 
area with association wind shift, and 3) scattered showers and 
MVFR (and locally IFR) ceilings in southeast Oklahoma Wednesday.

Southwesterly winds of 40-50 knots are expected around 2,000 feet
AGL overnight in north central Oklahoma overnight which will
create sufficient low-level non-convective wind shear to include
in TAFs at KPNC and KSWO. Some models suggest that it could be
close to LLWS threshold at KOKC and KOUN. Winds aloft are not 
expected to be quite as strong in north Texas or far southern 
Oklahoma.

A cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma near or just
after sunrise on Wednesday and move southeast through the area
during the day. Winds will veer to southwesterly and westerly
before the cold front, with winds becoming northerly after the
cold front moves through.

Stratus with MVFR ceilings are expected to spread into 
southeastern Oklahoma (including KDUA) on Wednesday morning with 
some local IFR ceilings possible in the afternoon. Scattered 
showers may also move into southeastern Oklahoma in the late 
morning and afternoon. 

Winds will become light and clouds decrease Wednesday evening. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  61  34  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         40  61  33  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  45  66  38  53 /   0  10   0   0 
Gage OK           37  58  27  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     37  58  27  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         40  55  38  51 /  10  30   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26