Expires:No;;148480 FXUS64 KLZK 040846 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 246 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 To begin the period, a weak disturbance is expected to move through central and southern portions of the state today bringing the chance for rain. As of right now, southern Arkansas looks to see the most rainfall from this system as moisture is likely to struggle getting too far north. A low chance of thunder will be possible across extreme southern Arkansas. This system will push out of the area late Wednesday night with calmer and drier conditions Thursday. As mentioned above, rainfall amounts Wednesday will be highest across southern Arkansas with a half inch to an inch possible. Central Arkansas can expect lesser amounts. As of right now, it appears there could be a sharp gradient in QPF amounts as you move north. Current model output is suggesting even central AR could struggle to see higher amounts...maybe up to a tenth of an inch at most. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s across the state for your Wednesday before dropping back into the mid 30s to lower 50s by Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 By late week, the flow aloft will become less amplified as a cutoff H500 low rotates across the SW US. Eventually, this feature will lift northeastward toward the Southern Plains. A corresponding sfc low and cold front will approach and move across the state from Sun- Mon. Rain is expected to become widespread ahead of the front, with the highest POPs occurring from late Sunday into early Monday. Some thunder is possible as well. Temperatures through Monday will warm significantly as sfc ridging shifts east of the area and srly winds return. Highs on Monday could approach 70 F across parts of S/SE Arkansas. After the cold front pushes through, sfc ridging will return from the NW. Persistent H500 troughing will be noted across the middle of the country and below normal temperatures will return to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours increasing and lowering clouds ahead of the next system to impact portions of the state beginning 04/12Z. A weak disturbance will bring some rain showers to central and southern terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely where SHRA move through. Winds will be out of the west and could be gusty at times. Additionally, some LLWS will be possible across northern terminals Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 29 39 20 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 51 37 49 23 / 80 60 0 0 Harrison AR 60 25 35 20 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 52 36 47 23 / 30 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 54 35 44 24 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 52 39 48 24 / 80 70 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 34 49 22 / 30 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 25 36 20 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 55 30 38 21 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 52 35 45 22 / 50 40 0 0 Russellville AR 60 32 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 32 40 21 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 52 35 43 23 / 30 20 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...73