Expires:No;;148921
FXUS63 KIWX 040853
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
353 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow, gusty winds, and lowered visibility are
  expected Wednesday evening overnight into Thursday. Wind gusts
  up to 50 mph are possible, especially near the lake.

- Winter weather warnings and advisories are in effect for
  southwest Michigan and northern Indiana. Hazardous travel is 
  possible in these areas.
 
- Arctic air arrives Wednesday night with wind chills in the
  single digits to below zero. The cold will last through 
  Friday with highs Thursday and Friday in the mid 20s to around
  30 degrees. Lows are expected to be in the teens to around 20
  degrees. 

- Friday and Saturday will be dry, then rain is expected Sunday
  night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Weak high pressure ridging and increasing southwesterly low-
level flow will bring some warm air advection into the area
today and high temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to around
40 degrees. A clipper system will then drop down from the
northwest this afternoon with another round of snow. Some rain 
can also be expected before temperatures plummet with the 
arrival of an arctic front and much colder air. The system 
related snow will initially be light. The biggest concern is the
gusty winds that will accompany the front, which could create 
snow squall conditions as it crossed the forecast area from 
northwest to southeast this evening. Gusts up to around 50 mph 
will be possible, causing blowing and drifting snow, and 
hazardous driving conditions. Lake effect snow will then develop
behind the front, which could bring the heavier snow amounts
overnight into Thursday. Winter weather warnings and advisories
have therefore been issued across southwest Michigan into
northern Indiana. The heaviest snow is currently forecast to
impact Berrien, Cass and St. Joseph counties in Michigan with 7
to 9 inches possible. Areas outside the warnings and advisories
could also see snow and blowing snow, but amounts should only 
be in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Friday will still be cold but dry. High pressure ridging will 
moderate temperatures some for the weekend. Highs on Saturday 
will be in the mid 30s to around 40, and then they will rise 
into the mid 40s for Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow will 
then allow temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to low 50s 
on Monday. Rainfall chances also increase Sunday night and 
Monday. This will be followed by another trough that will move
in late Tuesday into Wednesday, once again lowering
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Intermittent MVFR layer again over the area at the start of the
TAF period. Conditions should become VFR by late morning ahead 
of a strong cold front that should move across the area between 
23Z and 03Z. An initial rain/snow mix should become all snow as 
winds gusts increase to close to 40 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST 
     Friday for INZ005-006-104.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this 
     afternoon to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for 
     INZ007>009-014-103-116-204.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST 
     Friday for MIZ078-079-177-277.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST 
     Friday for MIZ080.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for 
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Skipper