Expires:No;;143543 FXUS64 KOHX 040631 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 It took a while yesterday, but skies finally cleared out and set the stage for what's going on now -- very chilly temperatures. Even before midnight, many along and east of I-65 are already into the teens. Fortunately, with the way dew points are panning out, temperatures should remain fairly steady the rest of the night. Why is this? Well, our next weather system is on our doorstep. In fact, some clouds preceding this system will move into the northern half of the area over the next few hours. As we get into the daylight hours today, really the biggest impact from today's system will begin revealing itself -- gusty winds. As the surface pressure gradient tightens this morning, look for winds to gust 25-30 mph. Yeah, we'll warm up this afternoon ahead of the front. Probably 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, but it won't exactly feel like it with the gusty winds. As far as the any rain with this system? Many will not see any. Overall, it's very moisture starved. However, shortly after sunset, we could see some very light showers develop. PoPs are very reflective of this widely scattered possibility. After midnight, as the front moves through the mid-state and swings winds around to the northwest, a VERY brief punch of moisture could combine with orographic lift on the Plateau and spit out some snow showers just before sunrise. No accumulations are expected at this time, but use caution during the Thursday morning commute on the Plateau as a few slick spots could be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Tonight's frontal passage is going to bring some of the coldest air of the season into Middle TN. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the teens area-wide and I would not be surprised to see a few thermometers reach upper single digits, especially on the Plateau. From Friday into Sunday, temperatures will warm up several degrees each day. In fact, by Sunday, we should see 50s across the whole area. Of course, you know what that means -- yep, another weather system. Models are in slightly better agreement that showers will move into Middle TN late Sunday afternoon and spread across the area through the night and into Monday, sparking what could be a fairly wet few days across the area. Current extended QPFs are still showing 1-3 inches from Sunday night into at least Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. SSW/SW winds will increase to 10-15 kts Wednesday morning with gusts late in the morning and through the afternoon to 20-25 kts. A shower could impact CSV/SRB after 05/00z so a mention of VCSH was included. A shower cannot be completely ruled out at BNA/MQY but probabilities were too low to include. Winds will shift to the W/WNW at CKV prior to the end of the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 55 27 35 18 / 10 20 0 0 Clarksville 52 22 31 17 / 0 10 0 0 Crossville 49 22 33 10 / 0 30 0 0 Columbia 54 27 38 15 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 50 24 33 13 / 0 30 0 0 Jamestown 49 21 32 12 / 0 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 54 28 39 14 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 54 26 38 14 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 52 24 34 17 / 0 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Reagan