Expires:No;;149005 FXUS62 KFFC 040857 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 357 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 500mb analysis shows NW flow aloft in place over GA. An upper low is situated just SW of the four corners region of the US. Strong southern stream shortwave energy to the south of the low will quickly move eastward today breaking down the NW flow. With the mid level flow turning more zonal in nature, the mid/upper level moisture currently across TX will quickly spread eastward later today and this evening. At the surface, a low pressure system currently off the SE coast of TX will also move east. This low should hug the Gulf Coast, but spreading low level moisture well northward into central GA. There will likely be a pretty sharp cut off (gradient) of measurable precipitation across the CWA. Areas along and south of I-20 will have the best chances of seeing measurable precip. However, with the forcing aloft, some patchy light rain/sprinkles will also be possible north of the 20 corridor. Temperatures profiles will not be diurnal in nature across much of the CWA. The NAM is hinting at a wedge to build in across NE portions of the state today and tonight. There are already hints in the pressure pattern. Temps could fall overnight within the wedge, especially if any precip/virga falls into it. Areas south of the wedge, temps may hold close to steady for much of the nighttime. Some mixed precip is possible across the higher elevations, but chances should remain small in the 20 to 30 percent range. South of the mountains, all rain will be the main p-type. The newer runs of the models have pushed the main precip axis a little further south. Any lingering precip should end by late morning/early afternoon on Thursday. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 The long term period picks up on Thursday night with another shot of cold air pushing in with building high pressure. Thursday morning lows will generally be in the teens to 20s, and afternoon highs will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s (with highs in the 30s in the mountains). Friday afternoon highs will be generally be in the 40s, with 30s in at elevations of 2000 ft and above. The GEFS has slowed the return of moisture this weekend, falling in line with the EPS and GEPS. These global ensembles depict moisture advection beginning on Sunday afternoon as the surface high shifts eastward. This is reflected in the current PoPs increasing from northwest to southeast Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the global ensembles depict a mid-/upper-level shortwave trough tracking eastward from the Desert Southwest and merging with a larger-scale trough that is progged to encompass much of the western and central CONUS. The National Blend of Models (NBM) PoPs are maximized at 60% to 80% and spread across the forecast area Monday morning through Tuesday morning as the trough and its associated forcing/ascent shift further eastward over the Mississippi River Valley, although there are differences amongst the global ensembles regarding the evolution of the trough and embedded shortwaves/disturbances. An area-wide chance for rain showers wraps up the long term period on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are not expected at this time, as instability is hard to come by this time of year barring anomalous warmth and/or an especially dynamic mid-/upper-level system. On the topic of temperatures, conditions will gradually warm over the course of the long term period. The warmest days are progged to be Monday and Tuesday, with highs mainly in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Now looking to rainfall totals, this synoptic setup -- an "open" Gulf of Mexico with continued advection of warm, moist air -- looks to bring beneficial rainfall to much of the forecast area. The current forecast is calling for widespread totals of 1.25" to 2.75" with as much as 3" to 4" in the mountains due to orographic lift. Rainfall totals are subject to fluctuate with subsequent forecast packages, as the moisture axis placement and localized rainfall processes come into better view. Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR through late Wednesday evening. Mid level clouds will begin to increase by sunset with MVFR cigs between 06-12Z THU. Some patchy light rain/sprinkles are possible at this time also. VSBY restrictions not expected at this time. Winds will remain on the west side and speeds should begin to pick p after 00Z WED. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 51 40 53 22 / 0 20 10 0 Atlanta 52 42 50 24 / 0 30 10 0 Blairsville 47 35 39 13 / 0 20 10 0 Cartersville 52 38 47 20 / 0 40 10 0 Columbus 53 46 59 26 / 0 70 40 0 Gainesville 48 41 48 23 / 0 20 10 0 Macon 52 45 59 26 / 0 30 20 0 Rome 52 36 46 20 / 0 40 10 0 Peachtree City 52 41 53 21 / 0 40 10 0 Vidalia 53 45 62 30 / 0 20 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...NListemaa