Expires:No;;137611
FXUS63 KTOP 040334
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
934 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Roller coaster temperatures into early next week.

- Dry weather expected for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

This afternoon a mid level trough was located over the Western 
states and another trough over the east with a northwest flow aloft 
in between. At the surface was located along the western high Plains 
with a tight pressure gradient over the Plains.

SOuthwesterly winds will continue overnight, then shift to the west 
late in the night and early Wednesday morning as a surface trough 
moves through. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 30s.

On Wednesday, A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeast out of 
Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another cold 
front south across the Plains during the day and moving into 
northern Kansas by late afternoon. Prior to the cold front 
temperatures will warm into the 50s as cold advection will hold off 
until the evening hours. Temperatures will fall into the teens 
Thursday morning as arctic high pressure builds south into the 
Plains. 

Return flow on the backside of the departing high pressure Thursday 
night will start a warmup for the day on Friday as highs top out in 
the 40s. Rising heights and southwesterly flow with warm air 
advection into the central Plains will send highs back into the 50s 
on Saturday and Sunday. The southwest mid level trough will dampen 
and move northeast into the southern and central Plains, however 
moisture transport looks to focus from the Gulf into the Ohio 
Valley, so the chances for precipitation remain below 10% for 
central and eastern Kansas. There is some model disagreement with a 
northern stream trough and associated precipitation in the Plains 
next Tuesday. There may be a low end chance for precipitation, but 
too low to add to the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... 
Issued at 934 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

MHK winds have decoupled and the potential for LLWS has
increased. So amended the forecast to include some LLWS through
10Z when the pre-frontal trough is expected to move in and 
weaken winds. Otherwise not a lot of change to the prev 
forecast. VFR conditions should prevail with just some high 
clouds. Winds shift to the northwest by late morning behind the
cold front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Wolters