Expires:No;;142116 FXUS66 KHNX 040538 AAA AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Hanford CA 938 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024 .UPDATE... Updated AVIATION section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather will prevail through next week with above average temperatures. 2. Nighttime and morning fog, locally dense in the early morning, remains possible every day through next week for the San Joaquin Valley. && .DISCUSSION... A low pressure system currently sits over much of central California that was previously off the coast of southern California. The cyclonic flow around the trough is pushing the upper level atmospheric flow to the south of the region, with an area of higher pressure to our north pushing flow through the Pacific Northwest. This upper level pattern is creating stagnant conditions aloft, resulting in dry conditions with minimal precipitation over the area. Conditions are conducive for Tule Fog each overnight and morning period in the San Joaquin Valley through much of this week due to this blocking upper level pattern. Clearing conditions each day will allow the surface and soil moisture to evaporate overnight, condensing at the surface in large part due to minimal winds and subsiding air aloft. Visibilities across the valley will generally be less than a quarter mile with localized areas experiencing less than 200 feet. Dry, stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week, with temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of the year. A slight cooldown is expected to happen on Friday as the aforementioned low pressure system digs deeper into the desert southwest region. The Cyclonic flow around the system will shift winds to the north, pulling in cooler air from the Pacific northwest. Temperatures will warm up slightly for Saturday as a shortwave ridging pattern sets up for the day. The following are probabilities from the National Blend of Models to reach or exceed 65 degrees each day through Thursday for various locations of the San Joaquin Valley. Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Bakersfield 60% 75% 40% 20% 50% Coalinga 85% 90% 90% 60% 75% Fresno 45% 45% 25% 4% 15% Hanford 55% 50% 40% 20% 20% Madera 60% 75% 40% 20% 20% Merced 60% 65% 40% 15% 20% Visalia 25% 35% 30% 5% 10% Cluster analysis and model ensemble output expresses a stronger trough dropping south into the western United States early next week. The flow around the trough will shift winds from the north again, albeit stronger than the system before the weekend, pulling in cooler air from western Canada. Afternoon temperatures are anticipated to be in the upper 50s and near normal for this time of year. Morning lows will approach the mid to lower 30s, which is below season averages. As the cooler air will originate over continental Canada, little moisture will be associated with the system, with little to no precipitation outside of the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. && .AVIATION... Widespread IFR visibility in mist across the San Joaquin Valley becoming areas of LIFR/VLIFR in fog by 09Z Wednesday. Becoming IFR/MVFR in mist/haze after 19Z Wednesday. High Sierra/Foothills/Kern County Desert: VFR few high clouds for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday December 4 2024, Unhealthy in Kern, Kings, and Tulare Counties. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Madera Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Merced County. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to noon PST Wednesday for CAZ302- 303-306-307-310>312-314-315. && $$ public/aviation...SM idss..............MM weather.gov/hanford