Expires:No;;141911 FXUS66 KOTX 040532 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 932 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week, and temperatures seasonably cool in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Chances are increasing that the ridge of high pressure will weaken by the weekend with a return of light wintry precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Made some changes to the forecast through Friday morning to account for the persistent inversion with stratus blanketing most of the region, encompassing elevations below 3500-4500 feet. Areas near the base of the inversion (2500-3500 feet) are quite cold this evening with some stations recording temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Made some adjustments to cool these areas, including the Camas Prairie. Also, freezing fog will be limited tonight to elevations within the stratus layer, which is hovering between 2400-3000 feet at the base. Thus freezing fog will be above many towns tonight, mainly impacting the mid slope areas, Hwy 2 from Wilbur to the West Plains, and the higher parts of the Palouse. Isolated flurries or light drizzle/freezing drizzle will remain possible for most areas tonight. With the Thursday wave very weak and fizzling as it reaches the area, it will do little to the inversion. Thus increased sky cover Thursday through Friday morning as the stratus remains in place. The stratus will limit temperatures changes, and thus made some changes to temperatures as well as a near persistence forecast dominates until we get a weather system to scrub out the inversion, which looks to happen this weekend. Friday forecast highs were not adjusted, but may be too warm around the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area down through the Palouse and LC Valley if the southeast boundary layer wind that develops ahead of the weekend system isn't strong enough to scrub out the stratus. JW && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: MVFR/IFR stratus continues to cover most of the region, and is not expected to budge through the TAF period. The lowest visibilities will occur where the stratus intersects the terrain, which includes elevations between 2600 and 4000 feet. PUW falls within this elevation range and is already seeing LIFR conditions. Locations between 2600 and 4000 feet can expect visibility down to 1/4SM with FZFG overnight and into Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high of stratus plaguing the region through Thu 06Z, with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions. With some fluctuations in the boundary layer wind around KPUW there is lower confidence with if and for how many hours 1/4SM visibility occurs. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 28 32 28 33 29 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d'Alene 30 33 30 35 31 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 28 30 28 32 29 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 32 35 32 37 33 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 29 33 29 34 30 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 30 33 30 34 31 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Kellogg 28 34 28 36 29 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 32 35 32 36 33 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 31 33 31 35 32 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 31 35 31 36 32 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$