Expires:No;;146536 FXUS62 KTAE 040812 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 312 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 We step out of the freezer this morning as a warming trend commences this afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, which is still below normal for this time of year. Clouds increase from west to east tonight ahead of another cold front; a few light to moderate showers are possible before sunrise, primarily in southeastern Alabama. A wide range of temperatures is expected tonight due to the aforementioned clouds and showers with middle to upper 30s along the Suwannee River to the upper 40s to near 50 in southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Cold front will pass through the region today with mainly scattered showers favoring southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle and adjacent Big Bend areas (these areas have atleast a 50% chance for rainfall) though the entire area has a chance for rain ahead of the front. Even a few rumbles of thunder could occur along the panhandle coast and Gulf waters where minimal instability may develop. Behind the front, high pressure slides down the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday morning. Highs Thursday may reach the lower 70s in the southeast Big Bend before the cold front swings through. Otherwise, highs in the 60s are anticipated. Northerly winds behind the front will usher in another round of chilly conditions with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s each night and highs Friday in the 50s. Winds and humidity appear unfavorable for widespread frost Thursday night but are more conducive Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Dry and chilly conditions will continue into Saturday as surface high pressure makes its way to the east coast. Return flow sets up beginning Sunday as that high pressure scoots into the western Atlantic and surface winds become southeasterly Sunday and Monday. This will allow high temperatures to bump up into the 60s to low 70s Sunday and low to mid 70s Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging develops in the southeast US ahead of a devolving upper low to shortwave trough Monday and corresponding weak front upstream of us Monday and into our area Tuesday. Better dynamics race northeast so severe weather appears low during this timeframe. Heavy rain could also occur, especially through the western third of our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds linger this morning before increasing out of the south to southwest Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Winds will clock around through the east and southeast directions today and tonight to westerly winds Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage Thursday night with a period of exercise caution Thursday night into early Friday and also a window of low end advisory conditions in waters west of Apalachicola. Moderate northeast winds will then prevail this weekend as high pressure settles into the southeast US. Late Sunday, winds become southeasterly as low pressure takes shape in the central Plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Low dispersions are expected today, especially across the Florida Districts as cold and dry conditions persist today. Another cold front will bring a few light to moderate showers to the region early Thursday. The best opportunity for a wetting rain will be across the Alabama and Florida Panhandle Districts. Due to rain and low ceilings, Thursday will feature poor dispersions with pockets of low dispersions possible. MinRH values will be in the middle 20s inland with low 40s closer to the coast this afternoon, seeing a notable increase into the 60-70% range on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Rainfall amounts will be fairly light and occur mostly west of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers tonight into Thursday night. A period of dry weather will exist after this system through the weekend before the next weather system affects our region next Monday and Tuesday (Dec 9-10). Differences remain in the solutions of the GFS and Euro and timing and intensity of features and corresponding rainfall. At this stage, the NBM and grand ensemble probs for 1 inch+ 24 hr rainfall is roughly 20-40 percent during this time frame with the higher end of the probs along and northwest of a Panama City to Albany line. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 44 68 35 / 0 20 40 10 Panama City 63 54 71 36 / 0 20 60 10 Dothan 58 46 61 30 / 0 50 50 0 Albany 57 42 61 30 / 0 30 30 0 Valdosta 60 38 68 34 / 0 10 30 10 Cross City 62 38 73 40 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 61 54 71 40 / 0 20 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>127-142- 144. AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>067. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Scholl