AGUS74 KWCO 031524
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
915 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024

.Synopsis...
River ice related flooding potential continues for portions of Alaska and  
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Wet period for East Texas through  
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley...

.Discussion...

.Alaska...
Across the central and southern Panhandle, periods of moderate to heavy  
rain and snowmelt through mid week may elicit river rises, especially along  
small streams and rivers across the central and southern Inner Channels and  
near Ketchikan.

.Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Intermittent periods of arctic air are expected across much of the region  
throughout the week, leading to rapid stream and river ice development  
across the region, particularly across the Dakotas, MN, and WI.This area  
will need to be closely monitored for potential freeze up ice jams.

.East Texas through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Periods of rain are expected days 2 - 7 (Wed - Mon) from far southeast TX  
through much of LA into central MS, which could produce isolated flooding  
impacts. Soil conditions are dry across this region (NASA SPoRT) with  
normal to below normal streamflows (USGS), which will mitigate most of the  
hydrologic response this week. By early next week, conditions could be  
moistened enough to see isolated hydrologic responses. Guidance from the  
National Water Model (NWM) Medium Range Forecast (MRF) shows very isolated  
small stream rises across central LA into central MS, with peak flows on  
smaller headwaters not expected until days 6 - 10 (Sun - Thu).

//TMK





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