AXAU02 APRF 250726
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0726 UTC 25/01/2024
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 90.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1200: 15.6S  89.4E:     030 (055):  080  (150):  971
+12:  25/1800: 16.1S  88.5E:     040 (070):  085  (155):  967
+18:  26/0000: 16.6S  87.5E:     045 (085):  090  (165):  962
+24:  26/0600: 17.1S  86.5E:     050 (090):  095  (175):  958
+36:  26/1800: 18.3S  84.4E:     055 (105):  095  (175):  955
+48:  27/0600: 19.1S  82.2E:     075 (140):  095  (175):  955
+60:  27/1800: 19.6S  79.7E:     095 (175):  095  (175):  955
+72:  28/0600: 20.3S  76.8E:     115 (215):  095  (175):  955
+96:  29/0600: 23.4S  71.3E:     175 (325):  085  (155):  963
+120: 30/0600: 27.9S  70.6E:     240 (445):  065  (120):  977
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has temporarily stalled in its intensification
although recent satellite imagery suggests another intensification is just
beginning. 

Position is good based on a 0301 UTC AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image and
satellite images. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has shown inconsistent
deep convection around the low level centre with an elongated eye appearing at
times and at other times no eye due to a weakness in the convection on the
southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates have been a combination of eye pattern
and curved band. In the last 3 hours a curved band of 0.8-1.2 gives a DT of
3.5-4.0. Also the satellite image at 0600 UTC showed the reemergence of an OW
eye surrounded by LG for an E-number of 5.0, with 0.5 subtracted for an
elongated eye to give a DT of 4.5. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend and PAT is
adjusted to 3.5. FT is based on an average DT of 4.0 and CI is held higher at
4.5. Objective aids have lowered slightly and those available around 0600 UTC
range between 66 and 84 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is lowered to 75 knots
(10-min mean). 

The general environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, good
outflow to the south, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and
high TPW surrounding the centre. The forecast intensity is based on a standard
development rate for the next 24 hours reaching a peak of 95 knots, then
intensity plateaus as outflow decreases and dry air begins to surround the
system. However given the small size of Anggrek a higher peak intensity is
possible.  The upper pattern next week is complex due to Tropical Storm Candice
to the west, but a weakening trend is expected from early next week.  

A strengthening mid-level ridge to the south will maintain southwesterly
steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during the
next 24 hours. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of
responsibility within the next 6 hours.
 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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There will be no further bulletins for this system.