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020-030-302200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 PM AST Tue Oct 29 2024

...WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAVY RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

Forecast models have consistently indicated a transition toward a
wet and unstable weather pattern in recent updates, and current
conditions show that this transition is underway. Over the coming
days, increasing instability paired with abundant tropical
moisture will likely lead to increased thunderstorm activity, with
some generating heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong 
gusty conditions. This pattern will result from the interaction of
several synoptic features, including a series of mid-to-upper-
level troughs and a nearly stationary front. Combined with well 
above normal precipitable water values for this period, ranging 
from approximately 2.1 to 2.5 inches, this interaction will 
support the heightened shower and thunderstorm activity.

A wet and unstable weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with further wet and unstable conditions extending
into early next week due to other synoptic influences. For this
event, however, the most intense and frequent thunderstorm
activity is anticipated between Thursday afternoon and late Friday night.
Forecasted rainfall totals range between 2 and 4 inches for this 
period, with locally higher amounts possible over eastern Puerto 
Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In contrast, 
lower rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected across other 
areas of Puerto Rico.

Prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall periods will increase the
risk of urban and small stream flooding, flash flooding, and
mudslides near steep terrain. Additionally, significant runoff
from excessive rainfall could lead to sudden river surges, with
some rivers exceeding flood-stage levels. Residents and visitors,
especially those in flood-prone areas or planning outdoor
activities, are advised to monitor the latest weather forecasts
closely. 

$$

ICP-WS