FGUS63 KKRF 221410 ESGBBL LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 512 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :BIG BLUE R AT SURPRISE NE NO.2 SRPN1 7.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LINCOLN CR AT SEWARD NE 3WNW SWDN1 15.0 17.0 20.0 <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT SEWARD NE SWRN1 18.0 22.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :W FK BIG BLUE R AT DORCHESTER NE 6NW DRGN1 15.0 22.0 24.4 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT CRETE NE 2S CRTN1 21.0 25.0 31.0 <5 13 <5 6 <5 <5 :TURKEY CR AT WILBER NE 3W WLBN1 12.5 16.0 21.0 <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TURKEY CR AT DEWITT NE 2SE DEWN1 23.5 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT BEATRICE NE BEAN1 18.0 26.0 32.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE RIVER AT BARNESTON NE BARN1 20.0 27.0 33.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT MARYSVILLE KS MRYK1 35.0 38.2 43.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE BLUE R AT DEWEESE NE 4SE DWEN1 10.0 16.0 17.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE BLUE R AT FAIRBURY NE FRBN1 18.5 20.0 23.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE BLUE R AT HOLLENBERG KS HBGK1 19.0 19.4 45.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILL CR AT WASHINGTON KS 1ESE WSHK1 18.0 19.0 35.0 <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 :LITTLE BLUE R AT BARNES KS 4NE BANK1 16.0 23.0 39.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT BLUE RAPIDS KS BLRK1 26.0 52.0 68.0 8 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLACK VERMILLION R AT FRANKFORT KS FKFK1 19.0 27.5 40.5 7 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211712/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BIG BLUE R SRPN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.6/ 2.2/ 2.6/ 3.0 :LINCOLN CR SWDN1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 6.7/ 8.3/ 10.4 :BIG BLUE R SWRN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 2.6/ 3.4/ 5.7 :W FK BIG BLUE R DRGN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 4.4/ 7.1/ 8.3 :BIG BLUE R CRTN1 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 8.1/ 10.2/ 13.8/ 16.9 :TURKEY CR WLBN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 4.7/ 8.0/ 8.4 DEWN1 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 12.3/ 14.1/ 15.1 :BIG BLUE R BEAN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 5.0/ 7.6/ 10.2 :BIG BLUE RIVER BARN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 4.0/ 5.4/ 8.7/ 12.5 :BIG BLUE R MRYK1 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.6/ 16.0/ 19.7/ 23.0 :LITTLE BLUE R DWEN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 3.7/ 5.2/ 6.7 FRBN1 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.6/ 8.8/ 10.9/ 14.7 HBGK1 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.5/ 2.2/ 3.9/ 6.6/ 10.3 :MILL CR WSHK1 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.4/ 4.6/ 12.8/ 15.0 :LITTLE BLUE R BANK1 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 5.4/ 6.5/ 11.0/ 14.2 :BIG BLUE R BLRK1 14.3/ 14.3/ 14.4/ 16.5/ 18.9/ 24.4/ 29.7 :BLACK VERMILLION R FKFK1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 9.2/ 16.6/ 22.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211712/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BIG BLUE R SRPN1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 :LINCOLN CR SWDN1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :BIG BLUE R SWRN1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 :W FK BIG BLUE R DRGN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :BIG BLUE R CRTN1 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6 :TURKEY CR WLBN1 1.6/ 1.4/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6 DEWN1 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0 :BIG BLUE R BEAN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :BIG BLUE RIVER BARN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 :BIG BLUE R MRYK1 12.9/ 12.9/ 12.7/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6 :LITTLE BLUE R DWEN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 FRBN1 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0 HBGK1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1 :MILL CR WSHK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 :LITTLE BLUE R BANK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 :BIG BLUE R BLRK1 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.9 :BLACK VERMILLION R FKFK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$