FGUS63 KKRF 221407 ESGBGH LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 237 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :WIND R AT DUBOIS WY 6NW DUBW4 5.0 5.5 6.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WIND R ABV RED CR AT DUBOIS WY 12SE WRCW4 9.5 10.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT CROWHEART WY 10SE CROW4 10.0 10.5 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT KINNEAR WY 2SW KINW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 1SE WDRW4 9.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 2SE RVTW4 8.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIGHORN R AT BASIN WY BHBW4 10.5 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIGHORN R AT GREYBULL WY GYBW4 92.0 93.5 95.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK SHOSHONE R AT WAPITI WY 5E NFSW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :S FK SHOSHONE R AT BUFFALO BILL WY ABV BBRW4 9.5 10.5 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SHOSHONE R AT LOVELL WY 2W SLOW4 11.0 11.5 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211437/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :WIND R DUBW4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :WIND R ABV RED CR WRCW4 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :WIND R CROW4 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6 KINW4 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6 WDRW4 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 :LITTLE WIND R RVTW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4 :BIGHORN R BHBW4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 GYBW4 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8 :N FK SHOSHONE R NFSW4 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :S FK SHOSHONE R BBRW4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4 :SHOSHONE R SLOW4 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211437/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :WIND R DUBW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 :WIND R ABV RED CR WRCW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 :WIND R CROW4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4 KINW4 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 WDRW4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :LITTLE WIND R RVTW4 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :BIGHORN R BHBW4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 GYBW4 81.8/ 81.8/ 81.8/ 81.8/ 81.8/ 81.8/ 81.8 :N FK SHOSHONE R NFSW4 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :S FK SHOSHONE R BBRW4 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 :SHOSHONE R SLOW4 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$