FGUS63 KKRF 221410 ESGGRA LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1023 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :THOMPSON R AT DAVIS CITY IA DVSI4 12.0 20.0 24.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :THOMPSON R AT TRENTON MO 1W TTZM7 27.0 31.0 34.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :GRAND R AT PATTONSBURG MO 2S PATM7 25.0 30.0 32.0 <5 11 <5 8 <5 7 :GRAND R AT GALLATIN MO GAZM7 26.0 33.0 39.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :GRAND R AT CHILLICOTHE MO 3S CHZM7 24.0 28.0 35.0 7 15 5 9 <5 7 :GRAND R AT SUMNER MO 2SW SNZM7 26.0 28.0 40.0 8 30 8 26 <5 <5 :GRAND R AT BRUNSWICK MO 1W BRNM7 19.0 27.0 33.0 7 20 <5 6 <5 <5 :S FK CHARITON R AT PROMISE CITY IA 6NW PRMI4 25.0 28.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHARITON R AT CHARITON IA 5SSE CHTI4 19.5 26.0 29.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHARITON R AT MOULTON IA 5W MOLI4 36.0 37.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHARITON R AT NOVINGER MO NVZM7 20.0 23.0 26.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHARITON R AT PRAIRIE HILL MO 2NW PRIM7 15.0 19.0 21.0 6 23 <5 13 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :THOMPSON R DVSI4 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.8/ 0.9/ 1.7/ 4.4/ 7.6 TTZM7 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 10.7/ 14.6/ 22.5 :GRAND R PATM7 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 2.3/ 3.4/ 9.5/ 21.1 GAZM7 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.4/ 4.7/ 10.1/ 21.8 CHZM7 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 5.9/ 10.9/ 28.1 SNZM7 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 9.3/ 13.1/ 18.0/ 34.0 BRNM7 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 7.7/ 9.6/ 21.9 :S FK CHARITON R PRMI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 5.5/ 7.9/ 14.8 :CHARITON R CHTI4 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 6.6/ 9.5/ 12.7/ 14.5 MOLI4 25.1/ 25.1/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.6/ 26.4/ 29.8 NVZM7 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 7.8/ 15.9 PRIM7 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.6/ 11.2/ 15.9 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :THOMPSON R DVSI4 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7 TTZM7 9.3/ 9.3/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1 :GRAND R PATM7 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 GAZM7 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 CHZM7 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 SNZM7 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8 :S FK CHARITON R PRMI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7 :CHARITON R CHTI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 MOLI4 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1 NVZM7 -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.1 PRIM7 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$