FGUS63 KKRF 221522 ESGJAM LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 211 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W PGEN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W GCEN8 12.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT LA-MOURE ND LAMN8 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N WESS2 14.0 16.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S CMBS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW SFDS2 14.0 17.0 18.5 <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5 :SNAKE CR AT ASHTON SD 2S SNKS2 11.5 13.0 16.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT ASHTON SD ATNS2 13.0 14.0 16.0 <5 6 <5 6 <5 5 :TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD IDBS2 7.0 10.0 15.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE RFDS2 20.0 22.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT HURON SD HURS2 11.5 15.0 19.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE FORS2 12.0 14.5 18.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE JRMS2 17.0 21.5 24.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N MTVS2 8.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE SCOS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT YANKTON SD YNNS2 12.0 16.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW PKRS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :E FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 4NE VRPS2 12.0 14.0 16.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE DVSS2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE WKAS2 14.0 15.5 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N VERS2 21.0 22.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211411/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :PIPESTEM CR PGEN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2 :JAMES R GCEN8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4 LAMN8 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8 :ELM R WESS2 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.6 :JAMES R CMBS2 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7 SFDS2 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7 :SNAKE CR SNKS2 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :JAMES R ATNS2 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5 :TURTLE CR IDBS2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.4 :JAMES R RFDS2 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9 HURS2 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0 FORS2 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3 JRMS2 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.9 :FIRESTEEL CR MTVS2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :JAMES R SCOS2 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7 YNNS2 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8 :W FK VERMILLION R PKRS2 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.7 :E FK VERMILLION R VRPS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.6/ 4.7 :VERMILLION R DVSS2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.5/ 3.6 WKAS2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 5.5/ 5.7 VERS2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.5/ 3.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211411/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :PIPESTEM CR PGEN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2 :JAMES R GCEN8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 LAMN8 7.1/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0 :ELM R WESS2 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 :JAMES R CMBS2 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8 SFDS2 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2 :SNAKE CR SNKS2 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 :JAMES R ATNS2 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 :TURTLE CR IDBS2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 :JAMES R RFDS2 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 HURS2 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1 FORS2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 JRMS2 12.0/ 12.0/ 12.0/ 12.0/ 12.0/ 12.0/ 12.0 :FIRESTEEL CR MTVS2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :JAMES R SCOS2 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 YNNS2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :W FK VERMILLION R PKRS2 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :E FK VERMILLION R VRPS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :VERMILLION R DVSS2 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 WKAS2 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 VERS2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$