FGUS63 KKRF 221409 ESGKSR LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1023 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :CHAPMAN CR AT CHAPMAN KS 4NNW CHPK1 19.0 26.0 37.0 <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LYON CR AT JUNCTION CITY KS 7S JNCK1 21.0 35.0 39.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT JUNCTION CITY KS 4SSW JUCK1 22.0 32.0 44.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT FT RILEY KS FTRK1 21.0 26.0 33.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WILDCAT CR AT MANHATTAN KS SCENIC DR MWCK1 14.0 17.0 23.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT MANHATTAN KS MHKK1 18.0 26.0 42.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT WAMEGO KS NO.2 WMGK1 19.0 26.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :VERMILLION CR AT WAMEGO KS 11NE VCWK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ROCK CR AT LOUISVILLE KS LISK1 27.0 33.0 43.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT BELVUE KS 4SE BVUK1 20.0 28.0 33.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CROSS CR AT ROSSVILLE KS RSSK1 25.0 29.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILL CR AT PAXICO KS 1SW PXCK1 21.0 31.0 33.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT TOPEKA KS TPAK1 26.0 27.0 44.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOLDIER CR AT DELIA KS 3E DELK1 26.0 26.5 29.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOLDIER CR AT TOPEKA KS 4NW TOPK1 29.0 34.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :DELAWARE R AT MUSCOTAH KS 2S MSCK1 27.0 28.0 36.0 <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT LECOMPTON KS 1NE LCPK1 17.0 23.8 38.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT LAWRENCE KS HWY 40 LWRK1 18.0 20.0 29.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WAKARUSA R AT LAWRENCE KS 4S LAWK1 23.0 25.0 45.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :STRANGER CR AT EASTON KS ESTK1 17.0 18.0 23.0 13 24 10 21 <5 <5 :STRANGER CR AT TONGANOXIE KS 4E TNGK1 23.0 30.0 35.0 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT DESOTO KS 1N DSOK1 26.0 33.0 36.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT KC KS TURNER BR TNRK1 41.0 47.5 54.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANSAS R AT KC KS 23RD ST KCKK1 33.0 54.0 55.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CHAPMAN CR CHPK1 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 5.1/ 6.2/ 10.4 :LYON CR JNCK1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.3/ 6.7/ 10.0/ 14.0 :SMOKY HILL R JUCK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 10.4/ 15.9 :KANSAS R FTRK1 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.4/ 11.5/ 15.0 :WILDCAT CR MWCK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 3.5/ 4.6/ 6.4 :KANSAS R MHKK1 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.2/ 10.8/ 14.2 WMGK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 8.0/ 12.4 :VERMILLION CR VCWK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 8.1/ 12.9 :ROCK CR LISK1 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 9.1/ 10.9/ 13.9 :KANSAS R BVUK1 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 9.8/ 13.3 :CROSS CR RSSK1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 9.0/ 14.6/ 17.0 :MILL CR PXCK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 7.7/ 8.4 :KANSAS R TPAK1 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.4/ 7.0/ 10.7/ 15.1 :SOLDIER CR DELK1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 11.1/ 16.4 TOPK1 -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.2/ 0.2/ 2.2/ 7.7/ 10.8 :DELAWARE R MSCK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.6/ 5.0/ 12.1/ 20.9 :KANSAS R LCPK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 5.2/ 9.0/ 11.7 LWRK1 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 8.9/ 12.1/ 13.7 :WAKARUSA R LAWK1 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 6.4/ 16.6/ 17.1 :STRANGER CR ESTK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 3.9/ 11.2/ 17.9/ 19.9 TNGK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 4.6/ 8.7/ 22.9/ 24.1 :KANSAS R DSOK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.7/ 7.1/ 13.6/ 14.3 TNRK1 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 7.1/ 16.9/ 21.3 KCKK1 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.4/ 12.8/ 19.6/ 23.3 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CHAPMAN CR CHPK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :LYON CR JNCK1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 :SMOKY HILL R JUCK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :KANSAS R FTRK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :WILDCAT CR MWCK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :KANSAS R MHKK1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8 WMGK1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :VERMILLION CR VCWK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :ROCK CR LISK1 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6 :KANSAS R BVUK1 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6 :CROSS CR RSSK1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0 :MILL CR PXCK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :KANSAS R TPAK1 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7 :SOLDIER CR DELK1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 TOPK1 -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.4/ -0.4/ -0.4 :DELAWARE R MSCK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :KANSAS R LCPK1 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 LWRK1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1 :WAKARUSA R LAWK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :STRANGER CR ESTK1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 TNGK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :KANSAS R DSOK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$