FGUS63 KKRF 221448 ESGLRP LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 505 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :REPUBLICAN R AT RIVERTON NE NO.2 RVRN1 9.0 10.5 13.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT GUIDE ROCK NE 2S GUIN1 12.5 15.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT HARDY NE 1SW HDYN1 11.0 13.5 15.5 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT SCANDIA KS SNDK1 10.0 13.0 15.0 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BUFFALO CR AT JAMESTOWN KS 1N JMSK1 16.0 19.0 35.0 5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CONCORDIA KS 1N CNKK1 15.0 18.0 30.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELK CR AT CLYDE KS CLDK1 14.0 22.0 36.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CLAY CENTER KS 1S CYCK1 15.0 21.0 28.0 7 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211705/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :REPUBLICAN R RVRN1 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.8/ 3.9/ 4.9 GUIN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 9.1/ 10.2 HDYN1 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 1.1/ 3.2/ 5.3/ 7.4 SNDK1 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.8/ 2.6/ 4.2/ 8.9 :BUFFALO CR JMSK1 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 2.1/ 10.3/ 16.3 :REPUBLICAN R CNKK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 5.0/ 6.2/ 8.2/ 12.8 :ELK CR CLDK1 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.7/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 7.3 :REPUBLICAN R CYCK1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 7.0/ 9.4/ 12.3/ 17.2 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211705/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :REPUBLICAN R RVRN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 GUIN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 HDYN1 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6 SNDK1 0.1/ -0.0/ -0.1/ -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.3/ -0.3 :BUFFALO CR JMSK1 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :REPUBLICAN R CNKK1 3.8/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :ELK CR CLDK1 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5 :REPUBLICAN R CYCK1 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$