FGUS63 KKRF 221412 ESGLSH LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 631 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :S FK SOLOMON R AT WOODSTON KS 1S WODK1 12.0 16.0 27.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :S FK SOLOMON R AT OSBORNE KS OSBK1 14.0 20.0 27.0 <5 12 <5 5 <5 <5 :N FK SOLOMON R AT PORTIS KS PTIK1 15.0 20.0 25.0 8 14 <5 11 <5 <5 :SOLOMON R AT BELOIT KS NO.2 BLTK1 20.0 25.0 30.0 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :SOLOMON R AT GLASCO KS 1S GLAK1 22.0 25.0 34.0 <5 8 <5 7 <5 <5 :SOLOMON R AT MINNEAPOLIS KS MPSK1 26.0 30.0 38.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALT CR AT BARNARD KS BRNK1 21.0 23.3 24.9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALT CR NR AT ADA KS 3ESE ADAK1 18.0 19.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOLOMON R AT NILES KS NLSK1 24.0 28.0 34.0 5 21 <5 14 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT LINCOLN KS 1SE LINK1 30.0 36.0 38.5 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT TESCOTT KS TSCK1 25.0 29.0 32.0 <5 11 <5 8 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT LINDSBORG KS LNSK1 21.0 29.0 33.9 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT MENTOR KS 4N MTRK1 20.0 24.0 28.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MULBERRY CR AT SALINA KS 3W SLNK1 24.0 26.0 27.4 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT NEW CAMBRIA KS 1SE NCMK1 27.0 30.0 33.1 <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ABILENE KS ABIK1 27.0 30.0 33.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUD CR AT ABILENE KS 1NW ALEK1 15.0 27.0 33.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ENTERPRISE KS ENTK1 26.0 27.0 40.0 7 14 5 14 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211831/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK SOLOMON R WODK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.9/ 6.4 OSBK1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 6.5/ 9.5 :N FK SOLOMON R PTIK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.9/ 9.6/ 19.1 :SOLOMON R BLTK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 6.0/ 18.6 GLAK1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 6.9/ 18.9 MPSK1 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.2/ 4.5/ 17.2 :SALT CR BRNK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 8.1/ 8.5 :SALT CR NR ADAK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 5.5/ 6.2 :SOLOMON R NLSK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 5.3/ 14.1/ 23.2 :SALINE R LINK1 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 11.7/ 15.4/ 20.0 TSCK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 6.9/ 10.6/ 15.9 :SMOKY HILL R LNSK1 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 7.0/ 8.4/ 12.4 MTRK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.3/ 5.5/ 10.0 :MULBERRY CR SLNK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 5.3/ 15.3 :SMOKY HILL R NCMK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 5.6/ 8.3/ 21.5/ 22.3 ABIK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 4.9/ 18.4/ 22.3 :MUD CR ALEK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 3.1/ 5.0/ 8.6 :SMOKY HILL R ENTK1 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 6.3/ 8.1/ 20.0/ 26.9 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211831/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK SOLOMON R WODK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 OSBK1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :N FK SOLOMON R PTIK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 :SOLOMON R BLTK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 GLAK1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 MPSK1 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 :SALT CR BRNK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :SALT CR NR ADAK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :SOLOMON R NLSK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :SALINE R LINK1 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0 TSCK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :SMOKY HILL R LNSK1 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4 MTRK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 :MULBERRY CR SLNK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :SMOKY HILL R NCMK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6 ABIK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :MUD CR ALEK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :SMOKY HILL R ENTK1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$