FGUS63 KKRF 221406 ESGLUP LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 341 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SOUTH LOUP R AT RAVENNA NE RVNN1 5.0 8.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUD CR AT SWEETWATER NE SWTN1 16.5 18.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH LOUP R AT ST MICHAEL NE SMIN1 9.5 14.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MIDDLE LOUP R AT ST PAUL NE 1SE SPLN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :NORTH LOUP R AT ST PAUL NE 3N SPUN1 7.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CEDAR R AT FULLERTON NE 3NW FULN1 9.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LOUP R AT GENOA NE 2S GELN1 10.5 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO AT LORETTO NE 8W LRTN1 11.0 11.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT GENOA NE GEON1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211541/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOUTH LOUP R RVNN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.1 :MUD CR SWTN1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 8.5/ 10.9/ 12.4 :SOUTH LOUP R SMIN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 5.3 :MIDDLE LOUP R SPLN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.5 :NORTH LOUP R SPUN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.8 :CEDAR R FULN1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.9/ 4.5 :LOUP R GELN1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 5.7 :BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO LRTN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 4.2 :BEAVER CR GEON1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.7/ 5.8/ 6.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211541/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOUTH LOUP R RVNN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :MUD CR SWTN1 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2 :SOUTH LOUP R SMIN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :MIDDLE LOUP R SPLN1 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :NORTH LOUP R SPUN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :CEDAR R FULN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :LOUP R GELN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO LRTN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :BEAVER CR GEON1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$