FGUS63 KKRF 221229 ESGMDC LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1020 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT READING KS 3N RDNK1 19.0 21.0 45.0 13 23 11 16 <5 <5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT QUENEMO KS 2S QNMK1 17.0 24.5 40.5 10 13 5 6 <5 <5 :SALT CR AT LYNDON KS 3ENE LNDK1 10.0 16.0 24.0 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OTTAWA KS OTWK1 30.0 33.0 45.0 10 10 <5 6 <5 <5 :POTTAWATOMIE CR AT GARNETT KS 4N GRTK1 26.0 32.0 34.0 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :POTTAWATOMIE CR AT LANE KS NO.2 LNEK1 23.0 24.0 28.5 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OSAWATOMIE KS OSMK1 28.0 45.0 48.0 11 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT LA-CYGNE KS 1W LCGK1 25.0 30.0 36.0 11 15 6 12 <5 <5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT TRADING POST KS TPOK1 27.0 29.0 40.0 7 14 6 13 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212220/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MARAIS DES CYGNES R RDNK1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 3.1/ 5.0/ 21.5/ 22.5 QNMK1 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.7/ 2.7/ 4.6/ 17.3/ 23.2 :SALT CR LNDK1 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 1.2/ 6.9/ 12.0 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R OTWK1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 7.6/ 29.1/ 31.7 :POTTAWATOMIE CR GRTK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.9/ 7.5/ 14.0/ 24.1/ 26.4 LNEK1 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 6.8/ 8.3/ 14.0/ 21.5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R OSMK1 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.5/ 16.4/ 28.7/ 32.5 LCGK1 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.8/ 8.4/ 28.2/ 30.9 TPOK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.5/ 8.7/ 25.2/ 31.7 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212220/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MARAIS DES CYGNES R RDNK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 QNMK1 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.4 :SALT CR LNDK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R OTWK1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 :POTTAWATOMIE CR GRTK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 LNEK1 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4 :MARAIS DES CYGNES R OSMK1 12.7/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.4/ 12.4/ 12.4/ 12.4 LCGK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 TPOK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$