FGUS63 KKRF 221408 ESGMDT LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 310 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :CANNONBALL R AT REGENT ND REGN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CEDAR CR AT RALEIGH ND 19S RLGN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CANNONBALL R AT BREIEN ND BREN8 10.0 20.0 23.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT LINTON ND 1W BVRN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :GRAND R AT LITTLE EAGLE SD 1S LIES2 15.0 17.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MOREAU R AT FAITH SD 14NW FTHS2 16.0 18.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MOREAU R AT WHITEHORSE SD 2SE WHIS2 21.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT WY-SD STATE LINE UMRB BWSW4 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT STURGIS SD 20NE SBFS2 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT ELM SPRINGS SD EMSS2 19.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHEYENNE R AT WASTA SD 3E WASS2 13.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CHEYENNE R AT PLAINVIEW SD PLNS2 17.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211510/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CANNONBALL R REGN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 6.8 :CEDAR CR RLGN8 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 :CANNONBALL R BREN8 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 4.5/ 6.2 :BEAVER CR BVRN8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 4.8 :GRAND R LIES2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.8 :MOREAU R FTHS2 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.1 WHIS2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 4.0/ 5.1/ 5.8 :BELLE FOURCHE R BWSW4 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.6 SBFS2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 4.0/ 5.0 EMSS2 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 5.4/ 5.8 :CHEYENNE R WASS2 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.7/ 1.4 PLNS2 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 9.3/ 9.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211510/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CANNONBALL R REGN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2 :CEDAR CR RLGN8 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8 :CANNONBALL R BREN8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 :BEAVER CR BVRN8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 :GRAND R LIES2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :MOREAU R FTHS2 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 WHIS2 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :BELLE FOURCHE R BWSW4 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 SBFS2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 EMSS2 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0 :CHEYENNE R WASS2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 PLNS2 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$