FGUS63 KKRF 221231 ESGMIL LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1023 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :ST MARY R AT INTNL BOUNDARY MT SMBM8 7.5 8.5 9.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING MT ERNM8 9.5 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG SANDY CR AT HAVRE MT 7WSW BSMM8 8.5 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT HAVRE MT 2WNW HVRM8 10.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LODGE CR AT INTNL BOUNDRY MT LGEM8 7.0 9.5 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BATTLE CR AT CHINOOK MT 4N BCMM8 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CLEAR CR AT CHINOOK MT 7W CCMM8 5.5 6.5 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT HARLEM MT 4SSE HRLM8 21.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT DODSON MT 2W DMRM8 23.0 28.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT MALTA MT MALM8 16.0 19.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT SACO MT 7NE SACM8 20.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT HINSDALE MT 4NW BCHM8 14.0 16.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT TAMPICO MT TMPM8 23.0 24.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT GLASGOW MT 3SE GLWM8 25.0 29.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MILK R AT NASHUA MT 1SW NSHM8 20.0 28.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :POPLAR R AT POPLAR MT 1N PLRM8 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT WOLF POINT MT 5SE WPTM8 23.0 26.5 27.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT CULBERTSON MT 3SE CLBM8 19.0 21.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT WILLISTON ND 5SW WLTN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :ST MARY R SMBM8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.7/ 4.7 :MILK R ERNM8 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.5 :BIG SANDY CR BSMM8 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.6 :MILK R HVRM8 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.8/ 0.9/ 1.0 :LODGE CR LGEM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.7 :BATTLE CR BCMM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.1 :CLEAR CR CCMM8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.3/ 2.8 :MILK R HRLM8 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.9 DMRM8 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.9/ 6.4 MALM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.9 SACM8 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.2 :BEAVER CR BCHM8 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.3/ 5.2 :MILK R TMPM8 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.9/ 6.3 GLWM8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 6.6/ 8.5 NSHM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.4 :POPLAR R PLRM8 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.9/ 7.1/ 7.1 :MISSOURI R WPTM8 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.4/ 11.6 CLBM8 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.9 WLTN8 15.5/ 15.5/ 15.5/ 15.5/ 15.5/ 15.6/ 15.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :ST MARY R SMBM8 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :MILK R ERNM8 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :BIG SANDY CR BSMM8 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3 :MILK R HVRM8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :LODGE CR LGEM8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 :BATTLE CR BCMM8 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0 :CLEAR CR CCMM8 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6 :MILK R HRLM8 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9 DMRM8 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 MALM8 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 SACM8 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :BEAVER CR BCHM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3 :MILK R TMPM8 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5 GLWM8 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.4/ 3.4 NSHM8 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5 :POPLAR R PLRM8 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$