FGUS63 KKRF 221409 ESGMOM LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1023 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE SSCN1 30.0 33.0 36.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE DCTN1 35.0 38.0 41.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E BLAN1 26.5 28.5 33.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE OMHN1 27.0 32.0 40.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT PLATTSMOUTH NE 1E PTMN1 26.0 32.0 35.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE NEBN1 18.0 23.0 27.0 <5 15 <5 7 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE BRON1 34.0 38.5 43.0 <5 14 <5 8 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT RULO NE RULN1 17.0 21.0 26.0 <5 14 <5 9 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO SJSM7 17.0 21.0 27.0 <5 16 <5 9 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1 ATCK1 22.0 27.0 30.0 <5 12 <5 6 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS LEVK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 <5 10 <5 6 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT PARKVILLE MO 5W PKVM7 25.0 28.0 35.0 <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO KCDM7 32.0 35.0 49.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO NAPM7 17.0 25.0 30.0 7 25 <5 7 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO WVYM7 20.0 29.0 31.0 8 25 <5 7 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO MIAM7 18.0 28.0 29.0 8 27 <5 7 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO GLZM7 25.0 27.0 32.0 7 18 6 16 <5 9 :MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO BOZM7 21.0 30.0 34.0 8 19 <5 9 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO JFFM7 23.0 25.0 30.0 6 15 <5 13 <5 10 :OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO STTM7 23.0 30.0 35.0 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO MOAM7 19.0 22.0 25.0 7 13 5 9 <5 6 :MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE CMSM7 17.0 28.0 31.0 9 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO HRNM7 21.0 26.0 33.0 9 26 7 13 <5 5 :MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO WHGM7 20.0 28.0 31.0 8 21 <5 6 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E SCLM7 25.0 30.0 36.0 9 22 6 8 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MISSOURI R SSCN1 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.2/ 13.5 DCTN1 22.2/ 22.2/ 22.2/ 22.2/ 22.2/ 22.3/ 22.7 BLAN1 15.6/ 15.6/ 15.6/ 15.7/ 15.7/ 15.9/ 16.1 OMHN1 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.2/ 16.3/ 16.6/ 18.2 PTMN1 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.5/ 16.6/ 17.3/ 20.1 NEBN1 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.9/ 11.0/ 11.1/ 12.0/ 14.7 BRON1 25.6/ 25.6/ 25.6/ 25.6/ 25.7/ 26.5/ 30.1 RULN1 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.5/ 8.8/ 9.5/ 12.8 SJSM7 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.7/ 9.0/ 9.9/ 13.1 ATCK1 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.5/ 11.6/ 12.0/ 12.9/ 16.9 LEVK1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 6.3/ 7.3/ 11.6 PKVM7 9.9/ 9.9/ 9.9/ 10.0/ 11.4/ 12.5/ 16.3 KCDM7 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.2/ 12.2/ 16.5/ 20.5 NAPM7 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.3/ 9.3/ 13.8/ 18.1 WVYM7 11.1/ 11.1/ 11.2/ 11.3/ 13.1/ 17.2/ 22.6 MIAM7 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.0/ 10.0/ 15.2/ 22.3 GLZM7 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.6/ 14.1/ 18.1/ 27.5 BOZM7 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 8.2/ 11.2/ 14.9/ 25.4 JFFM7 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 10.7/ 15.0/ 24.2 :OSAGE R STTM7 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 5.3/ 8.7/ 14.7/ 24.6 MOAM7 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 3.4/ 7.6/ 14.9/ 22.7 :MISSOURI R CMSM7 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.1/ 2.9/ 8.6/ 15.8/ 24.0 HRNM7 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 7.1/ 11.2/ 19.5/ 30.1 WHGM7 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 4.9/ 8.6/ 17.2/ 25.8 SCLM7 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.7/ 12.4/ 16.0/ 23.8/ 31.7 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MISSOURI R SSCN1 6.8/ 6.6/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3 DCTN1 16.2/ 16.0/ 15.7/ 15.6/ 14.8/ 14.8/ 14.8 BLAN1 11.1/ 11.1/ 10.8/ 10.7/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 10.1 OMHN1 9.4/ 9.4/ 8.9/ 8.8/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.0 PTMN1 12.3/ 12.1/ 11.8/ 11.6/ 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.8 NEBN1 6.4/ 6.1/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0 BRON1 21.2/ 20.7/ 20.2/ 20.0/ 19.2/ 19.2/ 19.1 RULN1 5.1/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6 SJSM7 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5 ATCK1 7.8/ 7.1/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 5.9/ 5.8/ 5.7 LEVK1 0.9/ 0.2/ -0.2/ -0.4/ -0.9/ -1.0/ -1.1 PKVM7 6.6/ 5.9/ 5.6/ 5.4/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7 KCDM7 6.8/ 5.9/ 5.5/ 5.2/ 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.4 NAPM7 4.1/ 3.1/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.6 WVYM7 8.3/ 7.3/ 6.9/ 6.6/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.9 MIAM7 4.6/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0 GLZM7 8.8/ 7.3/ 6.8/ 6.3/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.6 BOZM7 5.0/ 3.8/ 3.1/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.0 JFFM7 3.2/ 1.8/ 0.7/ 0.2/ -0.2/ -0.5/ -0.7 :OSAGE R STTM7 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :MISSOURI R CMSM7 0.7/ -2.1/ -2.9/ -3.4/ -3.9/ -4.2/ -4.3 HRNM7 4.0/ 2.6/ 1.3/ 0.5/ 0.1/ -0.4/ -0.6 WHGM7 1.9/ 0.9/ -0.6/ -1.4/ -1.8/ -2.3/ -2.5 SCLM7 9.1/ 8.1/ 6.5/ 5.7/ 5.3/ 4.7/ 4.6 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$