FGUS63 KKRF 221507 ESGMTA LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 222 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SOLDIER R AT PISGAH IA PSGI4 28.0 29.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BOYER R AT LOGAN IA LGNI4 21.0 22.0 25.0 <5 5 <5 5 <5 <5 :WEEPING WATER CR AT UNION NE 2SE UION1 25.0 28.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT ATLANTIC IA 5SW ATCI4 19.0 23.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT RED OAK IA #2 RDOI4 18.0 22.0 27.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :W NISHNABOTNA R AT HANCOCK IA HNKI4 14.0 19.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WEST NISHNABOTNA R AT RANDOLPH IA 1W RDPI4 19.0 22.0 27.0 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :NISHNABOTNA R AT HAMBURG IA 2NE HMBI4 25.0 27.5 33.0 <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5 :LITTLE NEMAHA R AT AUBURN NE 1NE ABRN1 22.0 23.0 27.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TARKIO R AT FAIRFAX MO 1W FFXM7 17.0 18.0 25.0 5 10 5 9 <5 7 :N FK BIG NEMA R AT HUMBOLDT NE HBLN1 28.0 29.5 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TURKEY CR AT SENECA KS 8NW SNCK1 21.0 23.5 40.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG NEMAHA R AT FALLS CITY NE FLLN1 27.0 30.0 36.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :NODAWAY R AT CLARINDA IA 1E ICLI4 23.0 26.0 29.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :NODAWAY R AT BURLINGTON JUNCTION MO 1W BRLM7 23.0 28.0 35.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :E FK 102 R AT BEDFORD IA 1SSE BDFI4 24.0 25.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :102 R AT MARYVILLE MO 2E MYVM7 18.0 23.0 28.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :102 R AT ROSENDALE MO RSDM7 18.0 18.1 23.0 <5 6 <5 6 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT AGENCY MO 4NE AGYM7 20.0 25.0 30.0 8 20 <5 8 <5 <5 :LITTLE PLATTE R AT SMITHVILLE MO SMHM7 27.0 30.5 35.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT SHARPS STATION MO SSTM7 26.0 29.0 33.0 <5 16 <5 8 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT PLATTE CITY MO PLCM7 20.0 25.0 29.0 7 19 <5 8 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211422/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOLDIER R PSGI4 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 7.7 :BOYER R LGNI4 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.8/ 5.9/ 12.5 :WEEPING WATER CR UION1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 4.0/ 6.2 :EAST NISHNABOTNA R ATCI4 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 8.6 RDOI4 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 7.0/ 7.7/ 11.3 :W NISHNABOTNA R HNKI4 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 2.4/ 3.2/ 5.7 :WEST NISHNABOTNA R RDPI4 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.9/ 9.2/ 13.0 :NISHNABOTNA R HMBI4 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 9.6/ 11.1/ 17.0 :LITTLE NEMAHA R ABRN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.7/ 7.4/ 10.4 :TARKIO R FFXM7 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 8.2/ 13.3/ 17.1 :N FK BIG NEMA R HBLN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.9/ 3.3/ 4.5/ 6.5 :TURKEY CR SNCK1 0.2/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 1.0/ 3.5/ 5.4/ 9.2 :BIG NEMAHA R FLLN1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.3/ 7.3/ 8.6/ 12.5 :NODAWAY R ICLI4 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.6/ 10.7/ 11.2/ 11.8/ 13.1 BRLM7 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 5.9/ 8.3/ 10.0 :E FK 102 R BDFI4 10.9/ 10.9/ 11.2/ 12.0/ 12.9/ 15.1/ 15.3 :102 R MYVM7 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.9/ 7.9/ 9.6/ 12.2/ 13.2 RSDM7 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 8.0/ 12.1/ 15.0 :PLATTE R AGYM7 5.3/ 5.3/ 6.6/ 8.3/ 11.4/ 17.6/ 22.7 :LITTLE PLATTE R SMHM7 13.3/ 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.6/ 14.5/ 14.6/ 16.5 :PLATTE R SSTM7 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.7/ 6.4/ 10.3/ 17.3/ 24.8 PLCM7 -2.1/ -2.0/ -0.3/ 2.8/ 8.0/ 14.4/ 20.3 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211422/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOLDIER R PSGI4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3 :BOYER R LGNI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 :WEEPING WATER CR UION1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :EAST NISHNABOTNA R ATCI4 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 RDOI4 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0 :W NISHNABOTNA R HNKI4 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5 :WEST NISHNABOTNA R RDPI4 7.1/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8 :NISHNABOTNA R HMBI4 7.1/ 7.0/ 6.6/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8 :LITTLE NEMAHA R ABRN1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7 :TARKIO R FFXM7 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4 :N FK BIG NEMA R HBLN1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 :TURKEY CR SNCK1 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :BIG NEMAHA R FLLN1 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :NODAWAY R ICLI4 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5 BRLM7 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 :E FK 102 R BDFI4 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7 :102 R MYVM7 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9 RSDM7 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :PLATTE R AGYM7 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2 :LITTLE PLATTE R SMHM7 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1 :PLATTE R SSTM7 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 PLCM7 -2.5/ -2.5/ -2.5/ -2.6/ -2.6/ -2.6/ -2.6 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$