FGUS63 KKRF 221408 ESGMTB LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 521 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :BLUE R AT KC MO BLUERIDGE BLVD KBRM7 35.0 39.0 48.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG BLUE R AT KC MO BANNISTER RD KCCM7 34.0 40.0 42.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY 71 HWY MO KNYM7 27.0 36.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KC MO 63RD ST KAYM7 26.0 33.0 37.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KC MO COLORADO AVE BVCM7 31.0 36.0 37.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KC MO STADIUM DR KSDM7 33.0 39.0 43.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KC MO 17TH ST KSVM7 33.0 36.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY MO 12TH ST KCTM7 30.0 35.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE BLUE R AT LAKE CITY MO LKCM7 18.0 25.0 27.0 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CROOKED R AT RICHMOND MO 4N RICM7 20.0 21.0 29.0 8 16 8 14 <5 <5 :WAKENDA CR AT CARROLLTON MO CAXM7 16.0 19.0 21.0 12 27 10 16 <5 <5 :BLACKWATER R AT VALLEY CITY MO 1NW VLYM7 22.0 25.0 31.0 24 37 21 34 <5 7 :BLACKWATER R AT BLUE LICK MO BLVM7 24.0 29.0 37.0 27 45 15 29 <5 <5 :LAMINE R AT OTTERVILLE MO 1E OTTM7 15.0 18.0 26.0 29 41 23 31 <5 <5 :MONITEAU CR AT FAYETTE MO 6ESE FYTM7 16.0 21.0 25.0 30 42 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PETITESALINE CR AT BOONVILLE MO 4SSE BONM7 16.0 19.5 26.0 31 42 29 31 <5 <5 :MOREAU R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO 3S JCMM7 17.0 25.0 29.0 28 42 15 22 9 10 :HINKSON CR AT COLUMBIA MO TGRM7 15.0 18.0 20.0 15 19 5 5 <5 <5 :MARIES R AT WESTPHALIA MO WPHM7 10.0 15.0 20.0 17 46 11 15 <5 <5 :GASCONADE R AT HAZELGREEN MO 1W HZLM7 21.0 26.0 30.0 9 18 6 7 5 5 :ROUBIDOUX CR AT WAYNESVILLE MO RBXM7 7.0 14.0 20.0 31 40 <5 5 <5 <5 :BIG PINEY R AT FT LEONARD WOOD EAST GATE MO BIGM7 8.0 15.0 23.0 55 55 20 31 <5 <5 :GASCONADE R AT JEROME MO JRMM7 15.0 25.0 30.0 21 39 6 6 <5 <5 :GASCONADE R AT RICH FOUNTAIN MO RIFM7 20.0 25.0 30.0 17 30 6 17 5 5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211721/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BLUE R KBRM7 25.6/ 25.7/ 25.9/ 26.2/ 26.6/ 30.1/ 33.5 :BIG BLUE R KCCM7 5.6/ 5.8/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 10.1/ 15.9/ 24.8 :BLUE R KNYM7 3.6/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 6.4/ 9.8/ 16.3/ 24.7 KAYM7 6.9/ 7.3/ 8.2/ 9.8/ 12.5/ 16.5/ 22.8 BVCM7 7.3/ 7.5/ 8.1/ 9.6/ 11.8/ 15.8/ 21.1 KSDM7 6.6/ 6.8/ 7.3/ 8.5/ 11.1/ 15.9/ 23.7 KSVM7 8.5/ 9.1/ 10.1/ 11.8/ 15.1/ 19.2/ 26.4 KCTM7 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.2/ 7.9/ 10.8/ 14.3/ 21.2 :LITTLE BLUE R LKCM7 4.5/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.1/ 8.0/ 10.8/ 21.4 :CROOKED R RICM7 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 6.7/ 9.3/ 15.8/ 25.4 :WAKENDA CR CAXM7 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 6.4/ 11.4/ 18.7/ 20.2 :BLACKWATER R VLYM7 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.8/ 9.1/ 21.6/ 29.0/ 30.7 BLVM7 6.4/ 6.4/ 7.8/ 12.2/ 25.8/ 30.1/ 33.3 :LAMINE R OTTM7 0.5/ 0.5/ 1.6/ 4.9/ 16.9/ 21.8/ 23.5 :MONITEAU CR FYTM7 4.3/ 5.0/ 5.3/ 9.9/ 17.4/ 19.0/ 19.3 :PETITESALINE CR BONM7 2.1/ 2.1/ 5.1/ 8.5/ 20.1/ 21.7/ 22.8 :MOREAU R JCMM7 1.6/ 1.7/ 3.0/ 6.6/ 18.9/ 27.8/ 34.3 :HINKSON CR TGRM7 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.4/ 9.6/ 13.4/ 16.6/ 18.0 :MARIES R WPHM7 0.5/ 0.5/ 1.6/ 3.3/ 8.8/ 16.6/ 18.4 :GASCONADE R HZLM7 1.3/ 2.7/ 3.6/ 5.9/ 9.3/ 19.1/ 29.3 :ROUBIDOUX CR RBXM7 2.1/ 2.7/ 3.4/ 4.2/ 8.8/ 10.6/ 12.5 :BIG PINEY R BIGM7 3.1/ 3.5/ 5.4/ 8.6/ 13.6/ 18.2/ 20.8 :GASCONADE R JRMM7 2.5/ 3.4/ 4.8/ 7.9/ 13.4/ 21.3/ 27.6 RIFM7 2.6/ 3.2/ 4.8/ 7.9/ 12.8/ 22.3/ 29.5 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211721/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BLUE R KBRM7 25.0/ 25.0/ 25.0/ 25.0/ 25.0/ 25.0/ 25.0 :BIG BLUE R KCCM7 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :BLUE R KNYM7 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 KAYM7 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9 BVCM7 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 KSDM7 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0 KSVM7 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0 KCTM7 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :LITTLE BLUE R LKCM7 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 :CROOKED R RICM7 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2 :WAKENDA CR CAXM7 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 :BLACKWATER R VLYM7 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 BLVM7 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.1 :LAMINE R OTTM7 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :MONITEAU CR FYTM7 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :PETITESALINE CR BONM7 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :MOREAU R JCMM7 -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0 :HINKSON CR TGRM7 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 :MARIES R WPHM7 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :GASCONADE R HZLM7 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3 :ROUBIDOUX CR RBXM7 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3 :BIG PINEY R BIGM7 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3 :GASCONADE R JRMM7 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0 RIFM7 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$