FGUS63 KKRF 221428 ESGOSG LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1021 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :LITTLE OSAGE R AT FULTON KS FTNK1 22.0 25.0 30.0 10 23 8 20 <5 <5 :LITTLE OSAGE R AT HORTON MO 1N HTNM7 41.0 45.0 50.0 15 43 5 9 <5 <5 :MARMATON R AT FT SCOTT KS NO.2 FSKK1 38.0 42.0 43.0 7 10 <5 7 <5 <5 :MARMATON R AT NEVADA MO 2NW NVDM7 20.0 26.0 31.0 15 52 13 15 <5 6 :OSAGE R AT TABERVILLE MO TBVM7 23.0 34.0 46.0 12 19 <5 5 <5 <5 :SAC R AT CAPLNGR MILLS MO 5N CMZM7 16.0 19.0 28.0 17 25 14 22 5 5 :SOUTH GRAND R AT URICH MO 1S URHM7 24.0 26.0 33.0 8 21 6 17 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT BLAIRSTOWN MO 1SW BLRM7 20.0 23.0 36.0 18 55 12 33 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212221/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :LITTLE OSAGE R FTNK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 5.1/ 22.6/ 27.0 HTNM7 27.3/ 27.4/ 28.7/ 32.4/ 34.6/ 43.6/ 45.3 :MARMATON R FSKK1 6.8/ 6.9/ 8.0/ 11.1/ 14.9/ 35.9/ 39.5 NVDM7 2.3/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 8.0/ 15.0/ 28.1/ 29.6 :OSAGE R TBVM7 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 9.9/ 12.7/ 24.7/ 30.0 :SAC R CMZM7 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.8/ 7.5/ 11.6/ 21.5/ 27.8 :SOUTH GRAND R URHM7 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 6.3/ 11.0/ 22.8/ 26.8 :BIG CR BLRM7 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.8/ 15.2/ 18.0/ 23.8/ 25.3 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212221/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :LITTLE OSAGE R FTNK1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 HTNM7 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5 :MARMATON R FSKK1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3 NVDM7 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 :OSAGE R TBVM7 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7 :SAC R CMZM7 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 :SOUTH GRAND R URHM7 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :BIG CR BLRM7 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.2/ 5.6/ 3.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$