FGUS63 KKRF 221517 ESGUDT LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 304 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :LITTLE MUDDY CR AT WILLISTON ND 10NE LMCN8 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LTL MISSOURI R AT CAMP CROOK SD CACS2 12.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE MISSOURI R AT MARMARTH ND MTHN8 18.0 23.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LTL MISSOURI R AT MEDORA ND MDAN8 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE MISSOURI R AT WATFORD CITY ND14S WTFN8 20.0 24.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KNIFE R AT MANNING ND MNGN8 15.0 17.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SPRING CR AT ZAP ND ZAPN8 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KNIFE R AT HAZEN ND 1S HZNN8 21.0 24.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :HEART R AT MANDAN ND 3W MDNN8 27.0 33.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :APPLE CR AT MENOKEN ND 6W MENN8 15.0 16.0 17.0 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211504/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :LITTLE MUDDY CR LMCN8 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5 :LTL MISSOURI R CACS2 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1 :LITTLE MISSOURI R MTHN8 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.6 :LTL MISSOURI R MDAN8 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 2.2 :LITTLE MISSOURI R WTFN8 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.6 :KNIFE R MNGN8 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.7 :SPRING CR ZAPN8 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7 :KNIFE R HZNN8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.9 :HEART R MDNN8 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3 :APPLE CR MENN8 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.0 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211504/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :LITTLE MUDDY CR LMCN8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4 :LTL MISSOURI R CACS2 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :LITTLE MISSOURI R MTHN8 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1 :LTL MISSOURI R MDAN8 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 :LITTLE MISSOURI R WTFN8 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9 :KNIFE R MNGN8 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1 :SPRING CR ZAPN8 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7 :KNIFE R HZNN8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :HEART R MDNN8 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1 :APPLE CR MENN8 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$