FGUS63 KKRF 221518 ESGUMO LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 226 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :BIG HOLE R AT MELROSE MT MLRM8 6.0 7.5 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVERHEAD R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT TWNM8 7.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JEFFERSON R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT 5N TWIM8 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :JEFFERSON R AT THREE FORKS MT 3NW TFKM8 8.0 8.5 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :GALLATIN R AT GALLATIN GTWY MT 7S GLGM8 6.0 7.0 7.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :GALLATIN R AT LOGAN MT 1W LOGM8 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT TOSTON MT TOSM8 10.5 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :DEARBORN R AT CRAIG MT 11NW DBRM8 6.5 8.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMITH R AT ULM MT 8SE ULLM8 9.0 12.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT ULM MT 6E ULMM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SUN R AT SIMMS MT 1N SSRM8 7.5 8.5 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUDDY CR AT VAUGHN MT MDYM8 12.0 16.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SUN R AT VAUGHN MT 3SE VAUM8 6.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT FT BENTON MT FBNM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TETON R AT DUTTON MT 10NE DTTM8 9.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA :MARIAS R AT SHELBY 6S SHLM8 9.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT LANDUSKY MT 20S LDKM8 27.0 29.0 33.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON MT 1SW HLWM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA :MUSSELSHELL R AT SHAWMUT MT SHAM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA :MUSSELSHELL R AT LAVINA MT 1S LVNM8 9.5 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA :MUSSELSHELL R AT ROUNDUP MT 2SW RUPM8 10.0 10.5 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUSSELSHELL R AT MUSSELSHELL MT MUSM8 11.0 11.5 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MUSSELSHELL R AT MOSBY MT MSBM8 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211426/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BIG HOLE R MLRM8 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2 :BEAVERHEAD R TWNM8 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5 :JEFFERSON R TWIM8 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2 TFKM8 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.9 :GALLATIN R GLGM8 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.5 LOGM8 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.2 :MISSOURI R TOSM8 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.6 :DEARBORN R DBRM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.2 :SMITH R ULLM8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.3 :MISSOURI R ULMM8 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.3 :SUN R SSRM8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7 :MUDDY CR MDYM8 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.4 :SUN R VAUM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3 :MISSOURI R FBNM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3 :TETON R DTTM8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :MARIAS R SHLM8 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 5.4 :MISSOURI R LDKM8 13.4/ 13.4/ 13.4/ 13.4/ 13.4/ 13.5/ 13.6 :MUSSELSHELL R HLWM8 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.0 SHAM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2 LVNM8 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0 RUPM8 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.3 MUSM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7 MSBM8 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211426/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :BIG HOLE R MLRM8 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 :BEAVERHEAD R TWNM8 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 :JEFFERSON R TWIM8 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 TFKM8 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 :GALLATIN R GLGM8 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 LOGM8 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2 :MISSOURI R TOSM8 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6 :DEARBORN R DBRM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :SMITH R ULLM8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 :MISSOURI R ULMM8 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7 :SUN R SSRM8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :MUDDY CR MDYM8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :SUN R VAUM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :MISSOURI R FBNM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :TETON R DTTM8 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4 :MARIAS R SHLM8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :MISSOURI R LDKM8 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0 :MUSSELSHELL R HLWM8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 SHAM8 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 LVNM8 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 RUPM8 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 MUSM8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 MSBM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$