FGUS63 KKRF 221457 ESGURP LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 503 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E CAMN1 9.0 10.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211703/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.5 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 7.4 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.9 STTN1 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 7.2 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 5.2 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.4 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.2 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.6/ 7.7 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.8 CAMN1 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.6/ 4.2 ORNN1 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.7/ 4.7/ 5.6 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 6.7 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 5.1 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 5.3 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.9/ 7.7 NCRK1 5.3/ 5.4/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 6.2/ 9.6 BVSN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 6.4 STMN1 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 7.5/ 8.9 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.1/ 6.5/ 9.3 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211703/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 STTN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 CAMN1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1 ORNN1 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 NCRK1 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 STMN1 5.6/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$