FGUS63 KKRF 221411 ESGUSH LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 508 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S OKYK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W GOVK1 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N ARNK1 7.0 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E SCSK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT ELLIS KS ELLK1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE HYSK1 26.0 29.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S RSLK1 18.0 20.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS ELWK1 20.0 24.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N WAAK1 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N RUSK1 18.0 20.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LENORA AT LENORA KS LNRK1 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S GDEK1 11.0 16.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N SKTK1 9.0 12.0 13.6 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211708/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 6.4/ 6.8 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.8 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 3.6/ 4.1 SCSK1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 4.8/ 5.6 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 10.1/ 10.3 HYSK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 6.6/ 7.0 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 7.2/ 8.2/ 10.7 ELWK1 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.6/ 6.2/ 8.9 :SALINE R WAAK1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 5.2/ 6.4 RUSK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 7.0/ 8.0 :LENORA LNRK1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 3.7/ 4.2 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 5.3/ 9.7 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 6.1/ 7.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211708/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 SCSK1 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4 HYSK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 ELWK1 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :SALINE R WAAK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 RUSK1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :LENORA LNRK1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$