FGUS63 KMSR 231706 ESGCIW IOWA RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1205 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Cedar River LANM5 18.0 20.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ASTM5 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Turtle Creek TRCM5 10.5 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River CCYI4 12.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 JANI4 13.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Fork Cedar River FNHI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Winnebago River MCWI4 10.0 14.5 15.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Shell Rock River SHRI4 12.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek NHRI4 12.5 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River CEDI4 89.0 92.0 94.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Hawk Creek HUDI4 14.0 15.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River ALOI4 13.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 VINI4 15.0 18.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PLOI4 12.5 15.5 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CIDI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CEBI4 16.0 20.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CNEI4 13.0 15.0 16.5 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Iowa River ROWI4 12.5 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MIWI4 19.0 23.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 TMAI4 12.5 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MROI4 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 10 <5 6 <5 <5 IOWI4 23.5 24.5 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :English River KALI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 15 <5 8 <5 <5 :Iowa River LNTI4 16.0 18.5 22.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 CJTI4 23.0 25.0 26.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WAPI4 21.0 25.0 27.5 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 OKVI4 11.0 15.0 20.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231705/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cedar River LANM5 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.6/ 10.9/ 12.4/ 13.0 ASTM5 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 5.0/ 6.1/ 6.8 :Turtle Creek TRCM5 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.4/ 2.6/ 3.8/ 4.8 :Cedar River CCYI4 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 4.0/ 4.9 JANI4 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.4/ 2.0/ 2.6/ 3.6 :West Fork Cedar River FNHI4 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.2/ 6.9/ 8.0/ 9.0/ 9.9 :Winnebago River MCWI4 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.8/ 6.1 :Shell Rock River SHRI4 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 8.6/ 9.2/ 9.5 :Beaver Creek NHRI4 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.6/ 2.2/ 3.8/ 4.7/ 5.5 :Cedar River CEDI4 78.6/ 78.6/ 78.7/ 79.1/ 80.0/ 81.1/ 82.7 :Black Hawk Creek HUDI4 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 7.7/ 9.3/ 11.9 :Cedar River ALOI4 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.9/ 6.4/ 6.9/ 7.6 VINI4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 4.3/ 5.6/ 7.3 PLOI4 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.9/ 3.9/ 6.0/ 6.7 CIDI4 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 5.4/ 6.2 CEBI4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.3/ 6.2/ 8.4/ 10.0 CNEI4 5.2/ 5.3/ 5.6/ 6.4/ 7.4/ 10.4/ 11.0 :Iowa River ROWI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.0/ 4.9 MIWI4 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.4/ 11.1/ 11.8/ 12.2 TMAI4 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 4.7/ 5.3 MROI4 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.5/ 7.1/ 8.2/ 9.7/ 13.2 IOWI4 9.6/ 9.8/ 10.0/ 10.5/ 11.4/ 13.5/ 19.0 :English River KALI4 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 6.0/ 9.2/ 11.8/ 13.1 :Iowa River LNTI4 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 7.9/ 11.8/ 14.5 CJTI4 8.8/ 8.8/ 9.3/ 10.0/ 11.4/ 15.5/ 16.2 WAPI4 10.8/ 10.9/ 11.6/ 12.4/ 13.8/ 17.7/ 18.3 OKVI4 1.4/ 1.4/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.7/ 7.2/ 7.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231705/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cedar River LANM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 ASTM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Turtle Creek TRCM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Cedar River CCYI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 JANI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :West Fork Cedar River FNHI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Winnebago River MCWI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Shell Rock River SHRI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 :Beaver Creek NHRI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Cedar River CEDI4 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6 :Black Hawk Creek HUDI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Cedar River ALOI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7 VINI4 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8 PLOI4 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8 CIDI4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8 CEBI4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8 CNEI4 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.9 :Iowa River ROWI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 MIWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 TMAI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1 MROI4 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 IOWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :English River KALI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Iowa River LNTI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 CJTI4 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3 WAPI4 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3 OKVI4 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.3 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$