FGUS63 KMSR 231610 ESGDES DES MOINES RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1110 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 17.0 18.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DAKI4 20.0 24.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boone River WBCI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 14.0 16.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PROI4 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Raccoon River REDI4 20.0 24.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Raccoon River VNMI4 17.0 22.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DMWI4 36.0 38.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DEMI4 12.0 16.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North River NRWI4 22.0 25.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle River IDNI4 23.0 26.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South River AKWI4 29.0 30.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 25.0 30.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Des Moines River WDOM5 19.0 21.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 JCKM5 12.0 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ESVI4 10.0 13.0 14.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 EMTI4 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HBTI4 10.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FODI4 10.5 16.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 STRI4 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DMOI4 23.0 26.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DESI4 24.0 26.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 EDYI4 63.0 68.0 70.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 OTMI4 11.5 15.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 KEQI4 22.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SFLM7 18.0 22.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231610/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 1418.8/ 1418.8/ 1418.8/ 1418.8/ 1418.8/ 1419.1/ 1419.2 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.6/ 8.0/ 9.0 DAKI4 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.3/ 8.8 :Boone River WBCI4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.6/ 3.8/ 5.0 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 6.0 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.3/ 6.9 PROI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.6/ 6.7/ 7.9 :South Raccoon River REDI4 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.7/ 4.8/ 5.7 :Raccoon River VNMI4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 4.3/ 5.9/ 6.3 DMWI4 20.1/ 20.1/ 20.3/ 20.8/ 22.2/ 24.0/ 24.4 DEMI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.8/ 7.0/ 7.5 :North River NRWI4 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 10.7/ 13.4 :Middle River IDNI4 6.9/ 7.6/ 8.6/ 10.3/ 13.0/ 15.8/ 19.9 :South River AKWI4 5.6/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 7.0/ 9.1/ 12.3/ 14.2 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.7/ 8.7/ 9.8 :Des Moines River WDOM5 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.8/ 10.9/ 11.6 JCKM5 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.7/ 8.2 ESVI4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1 EMTI4 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 2.2/ 2.3 HBTI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.4/ 4.7 FODI4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 STRI4 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 6.6/ 7.4/ 8.4 DMOI4 20.4/ 20.4/ 20.4/ 20.4/ 20.4/ 20.4/ 20.5 DESI4 17.5/ 17.5/ 17.6/ 17.7/ 17.8/ 18.1/ 18.7 EDYI4 52.9/ 53.0/ 53.2/ 53.7/ 54.7/ 55.5/ 56.7 OTMI4 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 6.0/ 7.0 KEQI4 12.6/ 12.7/ 12.9/ 13.3/ 14.1/ 15.1/ 15.9 SFLM7 9.5/ 9.7/ 9.9/ 10.7/ 11.6/ 12.9/ 14.1 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231610/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 DAKI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Boone River WBCI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 PROI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :South Raccoon River REDI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Raccoon River VNMI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 DMWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 DEMI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :North River NRWI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Middle River IDNI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :South River AKWI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Des Moines River WDOM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 JCKM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 ESVI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 EMTI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 HBTI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 FODI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 STRI4 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 DMOI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 DESI4 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 EDYI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3 OTMI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3 KEQI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 SFLM7 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$