FGUS63 KMSR 231837 ESGGND GRAND..MUSKEGON..WHITE..PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 137 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Grand River JACM4 14.0 15.0 16.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buck Creek BUCM4 9.0 10.5 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River ETNM4 6.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DMDM4 13.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Red Cedar River WMSM4 9.0 10.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ELNM4 7.0 10.0 13.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sycamore Creek HHTM4 8.0 9.0 10.0 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River LNSM4 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GDLM4 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PORM4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Looking Glass River EAGM4 7.0 9.0 11.0 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Maple River MRPM4 9.0 11.0 13.0 15 44 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River IONM4 21.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Flat River SMYM4 8.5 9.5 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River LWLM4 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Thornapple River HSTM4 7.0 9.0 10.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 CLDM4 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River ADAM4 20.0 22.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rogue River ROCM4 8.0 10.0 11.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River GDRM4 18.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pere Marquette River SCTM4 5.5 6.5 7.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :White River WHTM4 6.0 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muskegon River EVRM4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Muskegon River MORM4 6.0 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muskegon River CROM4 9.0 11.0 12.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 NEWM4 11.0 14.0 15.0 <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 BDGM4 13.0 16.0 17.0 <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231837/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Grand River JACM4 10.2/ 10.4/ 11.1/ 12.0/ 12.7/ 13.4/ 13.7 :Buck Creek BUCM4 5.6/ 5.9/ 6.3/ 7.0/ 7.7/ 8.4/ 8.8 :Grand River ETNM4 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 4.8 DMDM4 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 8.5 :Red Cedar River WMSM4 2.5/ 2.9/ 4.6/ 5.7/ 6.4/ 7.2/ 8.1 ELNM4 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.5/ 5.1/ 5.9/ 6.5/ 7.1 :Sycamore Creek HHTM4 3.7/ 4.1/ 5.9/ 6.5/ 7.2/ 7.8/ 8.4 :Grand River LNSM4 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.3/ 5.7/ 7.1/ 8.0/ 8.9 GDLM4 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.6/ 6.1/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 8.0 PORM4 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.7/ 7.7/ 8.6/ 9.1/ 9.6 :Looking Glass River EAGM4 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.9/ 5.0/ 5.8/ 6.4/ 7.1 :Maple River MRPM4 3.7/ 3.8/ 5.0/ 7.4/ 8.5/ 9.4/ 9.5 :Grand River IONM4 8.6/ 8.8/ 10.1/ 13.5/ 15.9/ 18.0/ 18.5 :Flat River SMYM4 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 6.1 :Grand River LWLM4 5.0/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 7.8/ 9.3/ 11.0/ 11.4 :Thornapple River HSTM4 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4/ 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.4 CLDM4 3.1/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 5.1/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.2 :Grand River ADAM4 5.7/ 6.7/ 8.0/ 10.8/ 13.1/ 15.3/ 16.1 :Rogue River ROCM4 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 6.8/ 7.4 :Grand River GDRM4 1.4/ 2.3/ 3.5/ 6.9/ 10.2/ 12.4/ 13.6 :Pere Marquette River SCTM4 1.1/ 1.2/ 2.2/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.5 :White River WHTM4 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 5.4 :Muskegon River EVRM4 7.0/ 7.1/ 7.4/ 7.9/ 8.5/ 9.1/ 9.4 :Little Muskegon River MORM4 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 4.0/ 4.1 :Muskegon River CROM4 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.1/ 6.7/ 7.2/ 7.8 NEWM4 7.3/ 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.2/ 9.7/ 10.4 BDGM4 7.2/ 7.5/ 8.1/ 9.1/ 10.2/ 10.9/ 11.9 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231837/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Grand River JACM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0 :Buck Creek BUCM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Grand River ETNM4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1 DMDM4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1 :Red Cedar River WMSM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 ELNM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Sycamore Creek HHTM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Grand River LNSM4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 GDLM4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 PORM4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2 :Looking Glass River EAGM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Maple River MRPM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Grand River IONM4 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3 :Flat River SMYM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Grand River LWLM4 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5 :Thornapple River HSTM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0 CLDM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Grand River ADAM4 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.7 :Rogue River ROCM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Grand River GDRM4 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.7 :Pere Marquette River SCTM4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :White River WHTM4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2 :Muskegon River EVRM4 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :Little Muskegon River MORM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Muskegon River CROM4 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9 NEWM4 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9 BDGM4 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$