FGUS63 KMSR 231950 ESGILO ILLINOIS RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 250 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Illinois River MORI2 16.0 18.0 22.0 8 15 8 15 <5 9 OTWI2 463.0 467.0 471.0 8 15 <5 9 <5 <5 LSLI2 20.0 27.0 31.0 19 38 7 13 <5 6 HNYI2 23.0 24.0 31.0 11 24 8 21 <5 <5 PIAI2 18.0 22.0 28.0 15 30 7 14 <5 <5 PRAI2 447.0 449.0 455.0 11 23 7 15 <5 <5 HAVI2 14.0 17.0 23.0 25 52 15 28 <5 7 BEAI2 14.0 18.0 28.0 22 47 14 24 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231950/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Illinois River MORI2 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.5/ 7.2/ 10.7/ 15.5/ 21.4 OTWI2 458.5/ 458.5/ 458.7/ 459.1/ 460.0/ 461.9/ 466.4 LSLI2 11.1/ 11.2/ 12.0/ 13.9/ 18.7/ 23.5/ 28.3 HNYI2 14.7/ 14.8/ 15.1/ 16.2/ 18.5/ 23.4/ 26.3 PIAI2 10.6/ 11.3/ 12.2/ 12.9/ 13.7/ 20.0/ 22.8 PRAI2 430.9/ 431.1/ 433.0/ 435.8/ 440.7/ 447.5/ 450.2 HAVI2 4.9/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 9.6/ 14.0/ 18.3/ 21.3 BEAI2 9.2/ 9.3/ 9.8/ 10.9/ 13.0/ 20.1/ 24.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231950/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Illinois River MORI2 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2 LSLI2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7 HNYI2 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8 PIAI2 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8 PRAI2 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8 HAVI2 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.9 BEAI2 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.1 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$