FGUS63 KMSR 231351 ESGM10 MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 850 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :South Fork Zumbro River RCHM5 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Zumbro River ZUMM5 18.0 24.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Branch Root River LNSM5 12.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River HOUM5 15.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Upper Iowa River BLFI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DEHI4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DCHI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Turkey River SPLI4 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 EKDI4 12.0 16.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GRBI4 17.0 20.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River LKCM5 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River WABM5 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ALMW3 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MSCM5 660.0 662.0 665.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WIDM5 655.0 659.0 661.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WNAM5 13.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 TREW3 647.0 649.0 651.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LCRM5 641.0 643.0 645.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LACW3 12.0 13.0 15.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GENW3 631.0 634.0 636.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LNSI4 17.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LYNW3 625.0 628.0 631.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MCGI4 16.0 19.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GTTI4 15.0 18.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231350/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Fork Zumbro River RCHM5 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.4/ 4.8 :Zumbro River ZUMM5 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 6.8/ 8.0 :South Branch Root River LNSM5 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 3.5/ 5.8 :Root River HOUM5 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.6/ 6.9 :Upper Iowa River BLFI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.2 DEHI4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.5/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.8/ 3.3 DCHI4 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.2/ 7.7/ 8.2/ 9.1 :Turkey River SPLI4 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.9/ 4.4 EKDI4 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 5.6/ 6.6/ 7.8/ 8.5 GRBI4 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.0/ 6.4/ 7.3/ 8.2/ 9.8 :Mississippi River LKCM5 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 7.3/ 7.9 :Mississippi River WABM5 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.3/ 7.7/ 8.0 ALMW3 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.7/ 5.3/ 5.7 MSCM5 651.2/ 651.2/ 651.2/ 651.2/ 651.3/ 651.7/ 652.1 WIDM5 645.9/ 645.9/ 645.9/ 645.9/ 646.0/ 646.5/ 646.9 WNAM5 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.9/ 6.1 TREW3 639.7/ 639.7/ 639.7/ 639.7/ 639.9/ 640.5/ 640.8 LCRM5 631.5/ 631.5/ 631.6/ 631.6/ 632.0/ 632.7/ 633.4 LACW3 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 5.9 GENW3 621.3/ 621.3/ 621.3/ 621.4/ 621.9/ 622.9/ 623.8 LNSI4 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 8.3 LYNW3 613.2/ 613.2/ 613.2/ 613.3/ 614.1/ 615.2/ 615.9 MCGI4 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.8/ 8.3/ 8.8/ 9.6 GTTI4 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 6.0/ 7.4/ 8.7 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (CFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231350/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (cfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Fork Zumbro River RCHM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Zumbro River ZUMM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :South Branch Root River LNSM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Root River HOUM5 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :Upper Iowa River BLFI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 DEHI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 DCHI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Turkey River SPLI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 EKDI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 GRBI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :Mississippi River LKCM5 13.0/ 12.7/ 12.1/ 11.7/ 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.3 :Mississippi River WABM5 13.0/ 12.7/ 12.1/ 11.7/ 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.3 ALMW3 13.4/ 12.9/ 12.4/ 11.9/ 11.7/ 11.6/ 11.5 MSCM5 14.2/ 13.5/ 13.0/ 12.5/ 12.3/ 12.1/ 12.1 WIDM5 14.4/ 13.7/ 13.2/ 12.7/ 12.4/ 12.3/ 12.3 WNAM5 14.4/ 13.7/ 13.2/ 12.7/ 12.4/ 12.3/ 12.3 TREW3 14.9/ 14.1/ 13.7/ 13.1/ 12.9/ 12.7/ 12.7 LCRM5 15.8/ 14.9/ 14.4/ 13.8/ 13.5/ 13.4/ 13.3 LACW3 16.1/ 15.1/ 14.8/ 14.1/ 13.7/ 13.5/ 13.5 GENW3 16.9/ 16.0/ 15.6/ 14.9/ 14.5/ 14.3/ 14.3 LNSI4 17.5/ 16.6/ 16.1/ 15.5/ 15.0/ 14.8/ 14.8 LYNW3 17.7/ 16.8/ 16.3/ 15.7/ 15.2/ 15.0/ 14.9 MCGI4 17.9/ 17.1/ 16.4/ 15.8/ 15.4/ 15.2/ 15.1 GTTI4 22.7/ 22.0/ 21.1/ 20.4/ 19.8/ 19.5/ 19.4 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$