FGUS63 KMSR 231758 ESGMIN MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Little Minnesota River PVRS2 17.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River DAWM5 39.0 40.0 42.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River BSLM5 971.5 973.0 975.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MVOM5 14.0 16.0 17.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GTEM5 885.0 889.0 892.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Redwood River MSHM5 14.0 15.0 16.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 RWDM5 6.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River MTNM5 21.0 23.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 NULM5 800.0 804.0 806.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River SPFM5 22.0 27.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 NWUM5 11.0 13.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River MNKM5 22.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HENM5 732.0 736.0 739.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 JDNM5 25.0 28.0 34.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231757/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Minnesota River PVRS2 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1 :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River DAWM5 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3 :Minnesota River BSLM5 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7 MVOM5 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 6.1/ 8.4 GTEM5 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.5/ 881.2/ 882.0 :Redwood River MSHM5 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.1/ 7.9 RWDM5 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.4 :Minnesota River MTNM5 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 12.6/ 14.4 NULM5 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.8/ 788.7/ 790.2 :Cottonwood River SPFM5 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.8/ 14.4/ 15.7 NWUM5 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.7/ 5.5/ 6.3 :Minnesota River MNKM5 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 6.3/ 6.5 HENM5 714.7/ 714.7/ 714.7/ 714.7/ 715.6/ 718.6/ 719.2 JDNM5 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 6.6/ 9.1/ 9.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231757/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Minnesota River PVRS2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River DAWM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Minnesota River MVOM5 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 GTEM5 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :Redwood River MSHM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 RWDM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Minnesota River MTNM5 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6 NULM5 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7 :Cottonwood River SPFM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 NWUM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Minnesota River MNKM5 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1 HENM5 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1 JDNM5 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$