FGUS63 KMSR 231541 ESGRCK ROCK RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1040 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Rock River WATW3 5.5 6.0 6.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crawfish River MILW3 7.0 9.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock River JFFW3 10.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FATW3 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 NVLW3 10.0 11.0 11.5 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 AFTW3 9.0 11.1 12.2 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Turtle Creek CLIW3 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BOIW3 7.5 10.5 12.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River DARW3 13.5 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Pecatonica River BCHW3 11.0 14.0 16.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River MTNW3 13.5 18.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FEEI2 13.0 14.0 16.0 <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar River ALBW3 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BROW3 5.0 8.0 10.0 15 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River SIRI2 12.0 14.0 15.5 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock River ROKI2 10.0 11.0 14.0 <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 LATI2 9.0 11.0 13.5 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 RABI2 6.0 8.5 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kishwaukee River BVDI2 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Branch Kishwaukee River DEKI2 10.0 11.0 12.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kishwaukee River PRYI2 12.0 18.0 22.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock River BYRI2 13.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DXRI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CMOI2 12.5 15.5 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 JOSI2 12.0 14.0 16.5 7 16 <5 7 <5 <5 :Green River GENI2 15.0 16.5 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock River MLII2 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231540/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Rock River WATW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.6 :Crawfish River MILW3 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.8/ 5.8 :Rock River JFFW3 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.3/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 7.7 FATW3 10.9/ 11.1/ 11.2/ 11.6/ 12.1/ 13.0/ 13.6 NVLW3 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.3/ 8.0/ 8.9 AFTW3 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.3/ 5.7/ 7.2/ 8.0 :Turtle Creek CLIW3 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.9/ 6.5 BOIW3 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 5.6/ 6.2 :Pecatonica River DARW3 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.7/ 6.3/ 9.6 :East Branch Pecatonica River BCHW3 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 6.3/ 7.7/ 9.4/ 10.4 :Pecatonica River MTNW3 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.5/ 7.6/ 10.6/ 12.6 FEEI2 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.7/ 7.3/ 10.8/ 12.7 :Sugar River ALBW3 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 10.2/ 10.9 BROW3 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.7/ 2.6/ 3.9/ 6.5/ 7.6 :Pecatonica River SIRI2 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 6.3/ 8.1/ 10.4/ 11.7 :Rock River ROKI2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 8.0/ 9.2 LATI2 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 5.7/ 7.2/ 8.3 RABI2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Kishwaukee River BVDI2 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 4.4/ 5.6 :South Branch Kishwaukee River DEKI2 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 6.7 :Kishwaukee River PRYI2 5.7/ 5.8/ 6.3/ 7.0/ 7.9/ 9.0/ 10.2 :Rock River BYRI2 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 7.8/ 9.3/ 10.8 DXRI2 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.8/ 9.4/ 10.1/ 12.1/ 12.9 CMOI2 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 4.8/ 5.9/ 8.8/ 10.2 JOSI2 5.2/ 5.3/ 5.8/ 6.7/ 8.3/ 11.0/ 12.3 :Green River GENI2 2.5/ 3.2/ 3.8/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 9.0/ 10.3 :Rock River MLII2 8.1/ 8.2/ 8.4/ 8.9/ 9.7/ 10.8/ 11.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231540/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Rock River WATW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1 :Crawfish River MILW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Rock River JFFW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 FATW3 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 NVLW3 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.6 AFTW3 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7 :Turtle Creek CLIW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 BOIW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Pecatonica River DARW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :East Branch Pecatonica River BCHW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Pecatonica River MTNW3 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5 FEEI2 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5 :Sugar River ALBW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 BROW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :Pecatonica River SIRI2 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9 :Rock River ROKI2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8 LATI2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9 RABI2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Kishwaukee River BVDI2 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :South Branch Kishwaukee River DEKI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Kishwaukee River PRYI2 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1 :Rock River BYRI2 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2 DXRI2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4 CMOI2 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4 JOSI2 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6 :Green River GENI2 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Rock River MLII2 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.7 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$