FGUS63 KMSR 231722 ESGRDW MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Prairie River TACM5 10.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River ATKM5 13.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Long Prairie River LGPM5 7.0 8.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River FTRM5 10.5 12.5 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sauk River STCM5 6.0 7.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River SCOM5 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Crow River MAYM5 11.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DELM5 16.5 17.5 18.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crow River RKFM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River AKAM5 12.0 14.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rum River MCAM5 6.0 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 STFM5 8.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River ANKM5 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MSPM5 16.0 16.5 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River SAVM5 702.0 710.0 712.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River STPM5 14.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HSTM5 15.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St Croix River DANW3 7.0 8.5 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River MOAM5 11.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PNCM5 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St Croix River STLM5 87.0 88.0 89.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River RDWM5 680.5 681.5 683.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cannon River NRFM5 897.0 899.0 900.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River REDM5 14.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231721/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Prairie River TACM5 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 3.8 :Mississippi River ATKM5 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 5.6 :Long Prairie River LGPM5 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 4.1 :Mississippi River FTRM5 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :Sauk River STCM5 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.5/ 1.7 :Mississippi River SCOM5 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.3 :South Fork Crow River MAYM5 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 4.8 DELM5 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.3/ 8.0/ 9.1 :Crow River RKFM5 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.0 :Mississippi River AKAM5 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.0 :Rum River MCAM5 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.3/ 2.6 STFM5 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.9/ 4.1 :Mississippi River ANKM5 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.4/ 4.3 MSPM5 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8 :Minnesota River SAVM5 687.4/ 687.4/ 687.4/ 687.4/ 687.7/ 688.6/ 689.1 :Mississippi River STPM5 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.3 HSTM5 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.4/ 6.1 :St Croix River DANW3 0.9/ 0.9/ 1.0/ 1.2/ 1.6/ 2.2/ 2.4 :Snake River MOAM5 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.5/ 3.4/ 5.5/ 6.0 PNCM5 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.3/ 4.9/ 5.3 :St Croix River STLM5 75.2/ 75.2/ 75.2/ 75.3/ 75.5/ 75.7/ 76.7 :Mississippi River RDWM5 667.9/ 667.9/ 667.9/ 668.0/ 668.5/ 669.5/ 670.7 :Cannon River NRFM5 890.0/ 890.1/ 890.2/ 890.4/ 891.0/ 891.7/ 892.1 :Mississippi River REDM5 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 4.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231721/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Prairie River TACM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Mississippi River ATKM5 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :Long Prairie River LGPM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Mississippi River FTRM5 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Sauk River STCM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :Mississippi River SCOM5 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :South Fork Crow River MAYM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 DELM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Crow River RKFM5 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :Mississippi River AKAM5 3.4/ 3.3/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 :Rum River MCAM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 STFM5 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :Mississippi River ANKM5 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 MSPM5 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :Minnesota River SAVM5 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :Mississippi River STPM5 5.9/ 5.4/ 5.0/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6 HSTM5 5.8/ 5.5/ 5.2/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7 :St Croix River DANW3 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8 :Snake River MOAM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 PNCM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Mississippi River RDWM5 8.4/ 8.1/ 7.6/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1 :Cannon River NRFM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :Mississippi River REDM5 8.6/ 8.6/ 7.9/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.3/ 7.3 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$