FGUS63 KMSR 231825 ESGSMS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 125 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Clinton River FSRM4 16.0 17.0 19.0 7 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Branch Clinton River MCLM4 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Clinton River MTCM4 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :River Rouge DETM4 15.0 18.0 20.0 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle River Rouge GACM4 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lower Rouge River DLRM4 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek DEXM4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Huron River HMGM4 7.0 7.5 8.0 63 31 42 25 26 15 ANNM4 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :River Raisin TECM4 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ADRM4 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BLIM4 683.0 685.0 687.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 DNDM4 650.0 652.0 653.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 MONM4 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231825/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Clinton River FSRM4 8.2/ 9.5/ 11.3/ 12.8/ 14.5/ 15.5/ 16.2 :North Branch Clinton River MCLM4 6.2/ 6.7/ 9.1/ 10.8/ 11.7/ 13.3/ 13.6 :Clinton River MTCM4 6.5/ 7.1/ 8.1/ 9.2/ 10.5/ 11.6/ 12.2 :River Rouge DETM4 7.8/ 8.9/ 11.3/ 12.5/ 13.9/ 15.1/ 15.9 :Middle River Rouge GACM4 5.1/ 5.4/ 6.9/ 8.0/ 8.7/ 9.2/ 9.3 :Lower Rouge River DLRM4 3.8/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.2/ 8.8 :Mill Creek DEXM4 6.6/ 7.1/ 7.9/ 8.7/ 9.6/ 10.4/ 10.6 :Huron River HMGM4 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.6/ 7.2/ 8.0/ 8.6/ 8.8 ANNM4 12.8/ 13.1/ 13.4/ 14.0/ 14.6/ 15.1/ 15.2 :River Raisin TECM4 5.3/ 6.5/ 7.4/ 8.2/ 9.1/ 9.7/ 10.0 ADRM4 5.0/ 6.3/ 7.6/ 9.1/ 10.8/ 11.9/ 12.4 BLIM4 675.7/ 676.3/ 676.9/ 678.0/ 679.8/ 681.2/ 681.9 DNDM4 638.4/ 639.4/ 640.4/ 642.0/ 643.9/ 646.0/ 647.2 MONM4 4.7/ 5.6/ 6.2/ 7.0/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 8.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231825/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Clinton River FSRM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :North Branch Clinton River MCLM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Clinton River MTCM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :River Rouge DETM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Middle River Rouge GACM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Lower Rouge River DLRM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Mill Creek DEXM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Huron River HMGM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1 ANNM4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2 :River Raisin TECM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 ADRM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 BLIM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 DNDM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 MONM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$